Why Do Most Hurricanes Occur Between June and November?

A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating, organized storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms over tropical or subtropical waters. In the Atlantic Ocean or the Northeast Pacific, these systems are called hurricanes. The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. This timeframe is when oceanic and atmospheric factors align, making storm formation most probable due to several environmental thresholds being met simultaneously.

The Essential Fuel: Warm Sea Surface Temperatures

The presence of warm ocean water is the primary energy source for hurricane formation. The sea surface temperature must be at least 26.5°C (about 80°F), and this warmth must extend down to a depth of roughly 50 meters (160 feet). This deep layer, known as Ocean Heat Content, is necessary because the storm’s high winds churn the upper ocean. If the warm layer is too shallow, the storm’s action would mix cooler, deeper water to the surface, causing the storm to rapidly weaken.

The hurricane season aligns with the annual cycle of ocean heating. Tropical oceans take time to absorb the sun’s energy, so the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins do not reach their highest temperatures until late summer and early fall, peaking around August and September. The immense power of a hurricane comes from the release of latent heat when water vapor condenses into clouds and rain.

The Atmospheric Barrier: Vertical Wind Shear

A tropical cyclone cannot develop if the atmospheric environment is hostile. Vertical wind shear, the change in wind speed or direction between the surface and the upper atmosphere, is a primary deterrent to storm development. Strong shear tilts the storm’s structure, displacing the central column of thunderstorms and separating the low-level circulation from the upper-level outflow. This disrupts the vertical transport of heat and moisture needed to sustain the storm’s warm core structure.

During winter and spring, atmospheric patterns produce strong wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. As summer progresses, these patterns shift, and wind shear significantly decreases in the main development regions. Low wind shear allows the developing storm to maintain a symmetrical, vertical structure. This favorable environment permits the necessary vertical organization for a powerful hurricane to form and intensify.

The Importance of Pre-Existing Disturbances

While warm water and low wind shear establish a supportive environment, a hurricane requires an initial “seed” of low-level rotation. In the Atlantic, the majority of tropical cyclones originate from African Easterly Waves (AEWs). These are westward-moving troughs of low pressure that form over sub-Saharan Africa during the summer due to thermal contrasts between the desert and the coast.

AEWs provide the necessary low-pressure focus and initial cyclonic spin as they travel off the West African coast and traverse the Atlantic. These disturbances are most robust and frequent between June and October, aligning with the active part of the season. Without the initial spin from these waves, favorable thermal and shear conditions alone are often insufficient to generate a major storm.

Why the Season Has Defined Boundaries

The defined boundaries of the hurricane season reflect the transition periods when necessary conditions fail to align. Activity is slower in June because sea surface temperatures are often just reaching the required 26.5°C threshold, and wind shear may still be elevated. The ocean has not yet fully absorbed the summer heat, limiting the available fuel in the deep layer.

The season ends sharply in November because both oceanic and atmospheric conditions rapidly become unfavorable. Tropical ocean waters begin to cool noticeably, dropping below the 26.5°C threshold, which cuts off the storm’s heat engine. Simultaneously, atmospheric circulation patterns shift toward their winter configuration, leading to a swift increase in vertical wind shear. Cooling water and increasing shear effectively suppress tropical cyclone formation.