When Will the Woolly Mammoth Come Back?

The woolly mammoth once roamed the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions during the Pleistocene epoch. These creatures thrived across the vast “mammoth steppe” for hundreds of thousands of years, surviving multiple ice ages. Their eventual decline began roughly 15,000 years ago, primarily due to rapid climate warming that shrank their grassland habitat and increased hunting pressure from humans who had migrated north. The last isolated populations survived on Wrangel Island off the coast of Siberia until approximately 4,000 years ago. Today, the ambition to bring back this Ice Age icon is driving the field of de-extinction, which seeks to resurrect extinct species or create a functional equivalent. This endeavor is possible because the mammoth’s remains, often preserved in the Arctic’s permafrost, contain fragmented but usable DNA.

Genetic Engineering: The Mechanism of De-Extinction

De-extinction does not involve cloning a perfect genetic copy, which is impossible due to ancient DNA degradation. Instead, the goal is to create a cold-resistant, mammoth-like hybrid animal by editing the genome of its closest living relative, the Asian elephant. The Asian elephant shares approximately 99.6% of its DNA with the woolly mammoth, providing a suitable template for the genetic modifications. Scientists must first sequence ancient mammoth DNA to identify the specific genes responsible for traits that allowed the species to survive in the frigid Arctic environment.

Advanced gene-editing tools, such as CRISPR-Cas9, function like molecular scissors to precisely cut and replace sections of the elephant’s DNA. Researchers target genes related to key cold-weather adaptations:

  • Thick, long hair.
  • A dense layer of subcutaneous fat for insulation.
  • Smaller ears to reduce heat loss.
  • Specialized hemoglobin to efficiently transport oxygen in cold temperatures.

While only a few dozen genetic changes are thought to be required to confer these traits, the process is complex and must be performed on elephant cells to create a viable embryo. The successful creation of induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from Asian elephant cells has been a recent breakthrough, offering a crucial resource for genetic modification and the eventual creation of sperm and egg cells. This technology has already been demonstrated by inserting mammoth-inspired traits into the genome of a mouse.

The Current Timeline for Mammoth Reintroduction

The timeline is currently framed by the public goals of Colossal Biosciences, the leading biotechnology company pioneering the de-extinction effort. The company has set an ambitious target for the birth of the first woolly mammoth calf in late 2028. This initial milestone involves successfully editing the elephant genome, creating a viable embryo, and achieving a successful full-term gestation.

Achieving a live birth requires overcoming reproductive challenges related to the elephant’s biology, including its long gestation period of approximately 22 months. Even if the first calf is born on schedule, it will be a solitary individual, not a self-sustaining population. The ultimate goal of reintroducing the species into the Arctic requires a herd of genetically engineered animals large enough to be ecologically functional and interbreed.

Experts estimate that establishing a herd that can survive and reproduce independently in the wild will likely take several decades after the first birth. This time is necessary for the first generation to reach sexual maturity and for a sustainable population size to be built up through successive births. The timeline for true reintroduction into the Arctic environment, therefore, stretches well into the 2040s or beyond.

Beyond Genetics: Technical and Ethical Hurdles

The challenges of bringing back the mammoth extend far beyond the initial genetic engineering in the laboratory. One of the most significant technical hurdles is the need for a surrogate mother to carry the genetically modified embryo to term. The endangered Asian elephant is the only viable candidate for this role, but using them for high-risk pregnancies raises serious welfare concerns and is scientifically complex due to the low success rates associated with interspecies surrogacy.

This difficulty has spurred research into the development of an artificial elephant womb, or ex-utero gestation system, which would bypass the need for a living surrogate. Perfecting such advanced technology requires the ability to mimic the complex 22-month internal environment of an elephant. Furthermore, an animal engineered with mammoth genetics would still lack the complex social behaviors and survival knowledge that are typically passed down from a mother and herd.

The project also faces ethical debates, particularly regarding the allocation of financial resources. Critics argue that money invested in de-extinction could be better spent on the conservation of currently endangered species. There is also the moral dilemma of deliberately creating a new animal that may experience suffering, either due to unforeseen health issues from the genetic modifications or an inability to adapt to a modern ecosystem that has changed drastically since its ancestors vanished.

Rebuilding the Mammoth Steppe Ecosystem

The primary scientific justification for the de-extinction project is the potential for the mammoth to act as an “ecological engineer” in the Arctic. The woolly mammoth once maintained a vast grassland ecosystem known as the mammoth steppe, which supported a wide array of megafauna. The loss of these large grazing animals led to the degradation of the steppe into the less productive, mossy tundra that dominates the region today.

By grazing and trampling on the snow, large herbivores like the mammoth remove the insulating layer during the long winter months. This action exposes the ground to the severe cold of the Arctic air, allowing the deep freeze to penetrate the soil more effectively. This process is theorized to help stabilize the permafrost, the frozen ground that contains massive amounts of stored carbon.

Preventing permafrost thaw is considered an important strategy for mitigating climate change, as melting permafrost releases large quantities of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, into the atmosphere. The concept is already being tested in Siberia at Pleistocene Park, where other large herbivores are being reintroduced to restore the grassland. The eventual goal is for the engineered mammoth to join this effort, fulfilling the ecological role its extinct ancestor once played.