When Will Sharks Go Extinct? What the Science Says

Many are concerned about shark extinction, reflecting a growing awareness of their declining numbers. While a precise date remains unknown, scientific consensus indicates many shark species face an alarming risk. Understanding the factors contributing to this decline is essential. This involves examining current population trends, major threats, their role in marine ecosystems, and ongoing conservation efforts.

Current Status of Shark Populations

Many shark populations globally are experiencing severe declines. Over one-third (37%) of all shark species are currently threatened with extinction, categorized as Vulnerable, Endangered, or Critically Endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. Since 1970, populations of oceanic sharks and rays have plummeted by an estimated 71%.

Species like the oceanic whitetip, porbeagle, and smooth hammerhead sharks are classified as vulnerable, while scalloped and great hammerhead sharks are listed as endangered. This ongoing depletion emphasizes the need for immediate action to prevent further losses.

Major Threats to Sharks

Human activities are the primary drivers behind the rapid decline of shark populations. Overfishing stands as the most significant threat, affecting 100% of threatened shark species and serving as the sole cause of decline for 67% of all shark and ray species. Millions of sharks, estimated around 100 million annually, are caught for their meat and fins, with the global shark fin trade posing a particularly serious threat.

Sharks are often caught unintentionally as bycatch in fisheries targeting other species, such as tuna and billfish, especially through longlines. Habitat destruction also plays a substantial role, as coastal development, pollution, and dredging degrade critical nursery and feeding grounds like mangroves and coral reefs. Climate change impacts sharks through warming waters that disrupt migration patterns and prey availability, along with ocean acidification.

Ecological Importance and Consequences

Sharks play an indispensable role as apex predators, maintaining the health and balance of marine food webs. Their presence helps regulate the populations of other marine species, ensuring no single species dominates an ecosystem. When sharks are removed, this balance can be severely disrupted, leading to a “trophic cascade.”

This cascading effect means that the populations of species lower down the food chain can surge unchecked. For example, a decrease in shark numbers can lead to an increase in mesopredators like groupers, which in turn overconsume herbivorous fish, allowing algae to overgrow and damage coral reefs. Another instance saw the removal of sharks leading to an explosion in cownose ray populations, which then decimated scallop fisheries, illustrating the profound impact on commercially important species. Sharks also contribute to nutrient cycling and carbon storage.

Conservation Efforts and Hope for the Future

Despite severe challenges, numerous conservation efforts offer hope for the future of shark populations. Establishing protected areas and shark sanctuaries provides safe havens where these species can recover from human pressures. Implementing sustainable fishing practices helps manage fisheries responsibly, such as:

  • Strict permit requirements
  • Bag and size limits
  • The use of circle hooks to reduce injury
  • The requirement to land sharks with fins naturally attached

International agreements, like the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), play a role by listing commercially important shark species, regulating their international trade to ensure legality and sustainability. Organizations also conduct global strategies, such as WWF’s Global Shark and Ray Initiative, and public awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of sharks. These combined actions can help prevent further extinctions and allow shark populations to rebound.