Hawaii is located within the Central Pacific Hurricane Basin (CPHB), where tropical cyclones frequently form or migrate. While the islands are often subjected to the effects of passing systems, a direct strike by a hurricane-strength storm is statistically uncommon compared to coastlines on the US mainland. The surrounding ocean conditions and atmospheric steering currents create a natural defense, often causing storms to weaken before they reach the archipelago. However, the proximity of strong tropical systems still presents a constant threat to the isolated islands.
Defining the Threat
The power of a tropical cyclone is measured using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A storm is classified as a hurricane when its sustained wind speeds reach 74 miles per hour (mph) or higher (Category 1 or above). Systems with winds between 39 mph and 73 mph are classified as tropical storms, and those below 39 mph are tropical depressions. A “direct hit” generally refers to the eye of the storm crossing the coastline, which is a rare occurrence for Hawaii.
Tropical systems approaching Hawaii often weaken dramatically due to two primary meteorological factors: cooler sea surface temperatures and increased vertical wind shear. Hurricanes require warm ocean water, typically above 80 degrees Fahrenheit, to maintain their intensity, but ocean temperatures northwest of the islands are often insufficient. Wind shear, a change in wind speed or direction with height, works to tear the storm’s vertical structure apart, causing it to lose strength rapidly as it nears the island chain. This means many storms arrive as tropical storms or depressions, even if they were major hurricanes just days earlier.
The Most Recent Significant Impact
The most recent system to maintain hurricane status while passing near the main Hawaiian Islands was Hurricane Hone in August 2024. Hone was classified as a Category 1 hurricane when it tracked just south of the Big Island, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall to the southern portions of the archipelago. Maximum wind gusts of 72 mph were recorded on the Big Island, and waves of up to 18 feet battered the eastern shores of the island and Maui.
The storm’s passage caused an estimated $8.05 million in damage, primarily on the Big Island, resulting from flooding, mudslides, and road closures. Prior to Hone, Hurricane Lane in August 2018 was a Category 5 hurricane that approached the state but weakened to a tropical storm before its closest pass. Lane delivered record-breaking rainfall to the state, with one location receiving nearly 58 inches of rain, making it the wettest tropical cyclone in Hawaii’s recorded history.
Although Lane did not make a hurricane-status landfall, its widespread flooding caused over $250 million in damage, leading to a presidential disaster declaration. This highlights that while Hone was the most recent hurricane-strength impact, Lane was the most recent major damage event.
Historical Patterns and Notable Storms
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center typically sees four to five named storms develop or cross into its area of responsibility each season. Despite this frequency, only a few hurricanes have ever made a direct landfall on the islands. The rarity of a direct hit contrasts with the relatively high frequency of tropical storm and depression impacts, which still bring threats like flash flooding and high surf.
The most catastrophic storm in modern history was Hurricane Iniki, which made a direct landfall on the island of Kauai on September 11, 1992, as a Category 4 storm. Iniki was the most powerful hurricane to strike the state in recorded history, with sustained winds clocked at 145 mph. The storm destroyed over 1,400 homes on Kauai and caused an estimated $3.1 billion in damage, making it the costliest natural disaster in the state’s history at the time.
A decade earlier, Hurricane Iwa in November 1982 also caused significant damage, particularly to Kauai and Oahu, though its eye did not officially make landfall on Kauai. Iwa was the first significant hurricane to affect the state since 1959. These historical events highlight that while direct hurricane landfalls are rare, their devastating potential necessitates continuous vigilance.