For many in New York City, the anticipation of the first snowfall each year marks the transition into winter. While the exact timing is never certain, historical data and scientific understanding provide insights into when New Yorkers might expect to see those initial flakes.
NYC’s First Snowfall: Averages and Records
New York City typically experiences its first measurable snowfall around mid-December. The average date for the first measurable snow in New York City, based on data since 1970, is December 14. More recently, the current normal date for the first measurable snowfall has been observed as December 13. For record-keeping purposes, “measurable snowfall” refers to an accumulation of 0.1 inches or more. If snow falls but melts continuously and never reaches 0.1 inches, or if less than 50 percent of the exposed ground is covered, it is recorded as a “trace” (T).
The city’s history reveals a wide range in the timing of this first snow. The earliest recorded first snowfall in New York City occurred on October 15, 1876. Other early instances include October 29, 2011, when Central Park received 2.9 inches. Conversely, the latest first snowfall on record was February 1, 2023, with only 0.4 inches of accumulation. This broke the previous record of January 29, 1973.
What Influences the Timing of First Snow?
The arrival of New York City’s first snow depends on a combination of atmospheric conditions. Cold air masses must be present, with temperatures at or below freezing throughout the atmospheric column from the clouds to the ground. Alongside cold air, sufficient moisture is necessary to form snow. This moisture often comes from low-pressure systems that draw in humid air, such as Nor’easters.
The position of the jet stream also plays a significant role in determining where and when snow falls. This fast-moving current of air can divide colder, wetter weather to its north from warmer, drier conditions to its south, directing storm tracks. Broader climate patterns, like El Niño and La Niña, can influence the general winter outlook. El Niño typically leads to warmer, drier conditions, while La Niña phases generally bring wetter and cooler weather to the northern United States.