The Euphrates River, the longest river in Western Asia, flows from the highlands of eastern Turkey across Syria and Iraq. It is one of the two defining waterways of Mesopotamia, the cradle of civilization, which historically relied entirely on its flow. Today, this river is severely diminished, with water levels dropping to historic lows. The decline is the cumulative result of decades of complex human intervention layered upon increasing environmental stress. This decline began not with drought, but with the massive re-engineering of the river’s flow.
The Historical Baseline and Initial Stressors
The first major steps toward altering the Euphrates’ natural flow regime occurred in the mid-20th century as riparian states embarked on ambitious national development programs. Significant international tension over the water did not arise until the 1970s, when the first large dams were completed. The construction of Turkey’s Keban Dam, which began in 1966, was completed in 1974, almost simultaneously with the completion of Syria’s Tabqa Dam in 1973.
The concurrent impounding of the reservoirs behind the Keban Dam and Syria’s Tabqa Dam, which created Lake Assad, dramatically demonstrated the immediate impact of upstream control. This rapid infrastructure development, combined with a period of low rainfall, caused a significant crisis downstream in Iraq. Iraq’s annual water flow from the Euphrates, which had averaged around 33 billion cubic meters (BCM) before the 1970s, dropped to as low as 8 BCM in the 1980s.
The stress on the river system was further amplified by Turkey’s Southeast Anatolia Project (GAP). This large-scale development scheme included a series of additional dams on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. The Atatürk Dam, completed in 1992, was designed to store massive volumes of water for hydroelectric power and irrigation. These projects fundamentally altered the river’s historical pattern of seasonal flooding, placing the system under managed stress.
Acceleration: The Role of Climate Change and Drought
The process of the river visibly “drying up” accelerated significantly in the early 2000s, when natural factors compounded the existing infrastructural pressures. Starting around 2003, the region began to experience more frequent and more severe multi-year drought cycles. These climatic events acted as a powerful accelerant to the long-term decline caused by damming.
A key indicator of this acceleration came from NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data. This data revealed that the Tigris and Euphrates river basins lost approximately 144 cubic kilometers of stored freshwater between 2003 and 2009, a rate of loss considered the second fastest globally after India. This massive depletion includes surface water, soil moisture, and groundwater reserves.
The devastating multi-year drought between 2007 and 2010 highlighted the basin’s vulnerability. Natural climatic effects, such as soil drying and reduced snowpack melt, accounted for about 40% of the total water loss. The remaining 60% was linked to unsustainable human responses, primarily the rapid pumping of groundwater to compensate for the lack of surface water.
Rising regional temperatures have exacerbated the situation by increasing the rate of evaporation from reservoirs and river surfaces. This heightened evaporative demand, combined with reduced precipitation and snowmelt, creates a drier climate prone to severe agricultural drought. The increased frequency of these heat-driven drought cycles has pushed the river system into a state of visible crisis.
Water Politics and Upstream Management
The drying process is inseparable from the geopolitical landscape of the three riparian nations, which prevents unified water management. Turkey, as the most upstream nation and the source of approximately 90% of the Euphrates’ flow, maintains effective control over the water supply. Despite bilateral protocols, such as the 1987 agreement with Syria stipulating a minimum average flow of 500 cubic meters per second, this guarantee is often not met.
In recent years, especially during periods of low flow, the actual volume released into Syria has reportedly dropped as low as 200 cubic meters per second. This strategic control by the upstream nation severely limits the water available to downstream Syria and Iraq. The lack of a comprehensive, basin-wide international water-sharing treaty has allowed for unilateral actions to dictate the river’s fate.
Internal conflicts in Syria and Iraq have transformed water infrastructure into a component of warfare. Non-state actors, such as the Islamic State (ISIS), gained control of major facilities, including the Tabqa Dam, and used them to flood or deprive downstream populations.
The ongoing Syrian civil war has resulted in the destruction and neglect of water treatment and pumping stations, compounding the crisis. Actions taken by Turkey against Kurdish-held areas, such as reducing flow or targeting infrastructure like the Tishrin Dam, have been interpreted as the weaponization of water for political leverage.
Environmental and Human Consequences
The cumulative effect of reduced flow and climatic acceleration has resulted in devastating environmental and human consequences. The agricultural sector, which supports millions, has suffered massive losses. Multi-year drought cycles led to widespread crop failures, particularly in Syria, displacing as many as 1.5 million people from rural farming areas to urban centers.
In Iraq, the river’s decline is visible in the rapid shrinking of the vast Mesopotamian Marshlands. Historically covering up to 20,000 square kilometers, they have been reduced to a fraction of their original size; over 70% are now devoid of water in dry periods. This habitat loss has decimated regional biodiversity and displaced the Marsh Arabs, who rely on the ecosystem for their traditional livelihood.
The low water volume has increased the concentration of pollutants and led to a severe rise in salinity. As the river’s flow diminishes, seawater from the Persian Gulf intrudes further inland, reaching urban areas like Basra. This makes the water unsuitable for irrigation and human consumption. This degraded water quality has contributed to outbreaks of waterborne diseases, including typhoid and cholera, posing a significant public health threat in downstream communities.