The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is a framework demographers use to describe how a population’s composition shifts as a country undergoes economic and social development. This model links changes in birth and death rates to the process of industrialization and urbanization. Understanding where a country sits within this progression offers insights into its current population growth rate and future demographic trajectory. This analysis seeks to identify the current stage of the DTM that India occupies based on its national demographic metrics.
The Demographic Transition Model Explained
The Demographic Transition Model is described using four or five distinct stages, each defined by the relationship between the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and the Crude Death Rate (CDR). The CBR is the number of live births per 1,000 people annually, and the CDR is the number of deaths per 1,000 people annually. The difference between these rates determines the rate of natural increase (RNI) and population growth.
The initial phase, Stage 1 (High Stationary), is characterized by high, fluctuating birth rates and equally high, fluctuating death rates, resulting in a low and stable population growth rate. This stage reflects pre-industrial societies with limited access to modern healthcare and reliable food supplies, where high fertility is offset by high mortality. No country today is considered to be firmly in this stage.
A country enters Stage 2 (Early Expanding) when the death rate begins to fall rapidly while the birth rate remains high. This decline in mortality is driven by improvements in sanitation, food production, and public health measures, such as vaccines and basic medicine. The resulting wide gap between the high birth rate and the falling death rate leads to a very high rate of natural increase and rapid population expansion.
The transition to Stage 3 (Late Expanding) occurs when the birth rate begins to fall substantially, narrowing the gap with the low death rate. This fertility decline is attributed to increasing urbanization, better access to contraception, a rise in female education and employment, and a shift away from agricultural economies. The population is still growing, but the rate of increase slows down as the society modernizes.
In Stage 4 (Low Stationary), both the birth rate and the death rate are low and balanced, leading to a near-zero rate of natural increase and a stable population size. Societies in this stage are highly industrialized, with high life expectancies and a focus on small family sizes. A proposed Stage 5 (Declining) suggests that the birth rate falls below the death rate, causing the population to decrease slowly over time, as seen in some developed nations.
India’s Current DTM Classification
India is classified as being in the late phase of Stage 3 or at the very beginning of Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model. This classification is supported by recent national demographic metrics that show a successful transition away from high fertility rates. The most telling indicator is the national Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime.
The national TFR has declined to 2.0 (NFHS-5, 2019–21), which is below the replacement level of 2.1 required to keep the population stable. This metric places India past the peak expansion of Stage 2 and deep into the fertility decline characteristic of Stage 3. The national Crude Death Rate (CDR) was reported to be around 6.4 deaths per 1,000 people in 2023, reflecting a low and stable mortality rate typical of Stage 3 and Stage 4 societies.
The national Crude Birth Rate (CBR) stood at approximately 18.4 per 1,000 people in 2023, but is still above the CDR. This narrow gap results in a moderate rate of natural increase, meaning the population continues to grow, albeit at a slowing pace. The reduction in fertility has been driven by increasing female literacy and educational attainment, improved access to family planning resources, and urbanization, which are characteristic shifts driving the country toward Stage 4.
Regional Variation and Movement Toward Stage Four
A country as vast and diverse as India does not move through the DTM as a single, uniform unit; instead, a significant regional variation exists, creating a “demographic divide.” Southern states, such as Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Goa, exhibit Stage 4 characteristics. These states have TFRs as low as 1.3 to 1.5, well below the replacement level, indicating the start of population aging and possible future decline.
In contrast, certain states in the northern “Hindi heartland,” including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, are still closer to the late Stage 2 or early Stage 3 profile. Bihar, for example, reported a TFR of 2.8, and Uttar Pradesh reported a TFR of 2.6. This difference illustrates the strong correlation between socio-economic development indicators, such as female literacy and healthcare access, and the pace of demographic transition.
Despite these internal differences, the national momentum is steadily pushing the country toward a uniform Stage 4 classification, as the national TFR dropping below the replacement level signifies that even the higher-fertility states are experiencing rapid declines. The factors driving the transition—increased institutional births, greater contraceptive use, and a rise in female decision-making power—are national trends impacting all regions.
The country’s demographic future will be defined by the momentum created by its large, young population, which will cause the population to continue rising for several decades despite the low TFR. As the higher-fertility northern states continue their transition, the entire nation is projected to reach its peak population in the 2060s before beginning a gradual decline, characteristic of a Stage 4 or emerging Stage 5 society.