The Caribbean region, characterized by Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and low-lying coastal territories, faces a disproportionately high risk from global climate change. Despite contributing minimally to worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, these nations are geographically situated to magnify their exposure to oceanic and atmospheric shifts. The combination of small land masses, dependence on external resources, and reliance on climate-sensitive sectors creates a profound vulnerability profile. Most population, infrastructure, and economic activity are concentrated along the narrow coastal fringes, placing them directly in the path of escalating climate hazards. The region is already experiencing significant and costly impacts that threaten its long-term stability and development.
Coastal Erosion and Infrastructure Damage
The gradual threat of sea-level rise is fundamentally restructuring the Caribbean’s physical geography, beginning with coastline erosion. Beaches are shrinking, with some islands reporting average erosion rates of 0.5 meters per year. This permanent loss of sand degrades the natural barrier protecting inland areas from storm surges. As the sea level rises, it enhances the effects of tides and waves, leading to the inundation of low-lying lands.
This encroachment is particularly damaging to the region’s limited freshwater sources, as saltwater intrusion contaminates coastal aquifers. The porous limestone geology of many islands allows saline water to easily seep into underground reservoirs, severely compromising the supply of potable water.
The majority of essential infrastructure is also imperiled, as most Caribbean development is located within a few kilometers of the shore. Projections indicate that a one-meter rise in sea level could damage or flood numerous airports and ports. The high capital cost of rebuilding or relocating these facilities, including power plants and major roads, represents a significant drain on national economies. Estimates suggest rebuild costs could exceed 85% of Gross Domestic Product for some smaller islands.
Severe Weather Events and Water Scarcity
Changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions are fueling a rise in the intensity of tropical storm systems. While the overall frequency of storms may not be increasing, the proportion of high-intensity hurricanes, such as Category 4 and 5 storms, is trending upward due to warmer sea surface temperatures. These stronger hurricanes deliver devastating wind damage and cause massive storm surges that breach coastal defenses, resulting in widespread flooding.
The economic damage from these events is immense; the Caribbean region lost an estimated $45 billion due to tropical cyclone disasters between 1995 and 2022. For example, Hurricane Maria in 2017 caused damage in Dominica equivalent to 224% of its GDP, showcasing the scale of the financial shock. This vulnerability is compounded by the region also facing meteorological drought.
Altered precipitation patterns are leading to prolonged dry seasons and reduced overall rainfall, severely limiting the replenishment of surface water and reservoir systems. This shift results in pervasive water scarcity, which is a primary driver of water-related challenges for many islands. The combination of intense rainfall events and extended periods of drought places immense stress on water management and agricultural sectors.
Threats to Economic Pillars (Tourism and Fisheries)
The region’s heavy reliance on tourism and fisheries means that climate impacts quickly translate into economic instability. Tourism, the most significant economic activity for many Caribbean nations, is directly undermined by the degradation of natural assets. Rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification accelerate coral reef bleaching, reducing the appeal of diving and snorkeling. This loss also removes the natural wave breaks that protect beaches from erosion.
The physical loss of beaches due to erosion reduces the usable area for resorts and hotels. The financial risk associated with increased storm intensity is driving up the cost of business insurance, with premiums projected to increase by 20–80% by mid-century. A one-meter sea-level rise could affect 29% of resort properties, with an additional 49% vulnerable to damage from enhanced storm surges.
The fisheries sector faces concurrent threats from ocean warming and acidification, which alter marine biodiversity and the distribution of fish stocks. Warmer waters contribute to an increased frequency of massive sargassum influxes, which smother coastal ecosystems and interfere with fishing vessel access and tourism operations. On land, agriculture suffers from crop failure due to both extreme flooding and prolonged drought, compromising food security and the livelihoods of local farmers.
Public Health Crises and Social Displacement
The changing climate regime directly affects human health by expanding the range and intensity of vector-borne diseases. Higher ambient temperatures accelerate the reproductive cycles of mosquitos, such as Aedes aegypti, and increase the rate at which viruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika replicate. These outbreaks are compounded by extreme weather events, as heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding create vast areas of standing water, providing ideal breeding grounds for mosquitos.
Displaced populations often seek shelter in crowded or unsanitary conditions following a disaster, which facilitates disease transmission. Beyond infectious diseases, rising temperatures also increase the risk of heat stress and heat-related illnesses, placing particular strain on the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.
The combination of uninhabitable coastal areas, loss of livelihoods, and destruction of essential services fuels social displacement. As homes and communities become vulnerable to chronic flooding or are destroyed by storms, citizens are forced into internal or regional climate migration. Up to 110,000 people in the Caribbean Community nations could be permanently displaced by a one-meter sea-level rise scenario. This movement creates humanitarian challenges, straining public resources and social stability in stressed urban centers.