The Caribbean, a region of diverse island nations, faces profound challenges from a changing global climate. Its unique geography, with numerous small island developing states, makes it highly susceptible to environmental shifts. These islands are on the front lines of climate change, experiencing risks that threaten their natural environment, economic stability, and population well-being.
Coastal Inundation and Erosion
Rising sea levels pose a direct threat to the Caribbean’s low-lying coastal areas. Global sea level could increase by 0.3 to 1 meter by 2050, potentially rising to 1.4 meters by 2100. This leads to permanent land inundation, making areas like the Bahamas particularly vulnerable, as 80% of its land lies below 10 meters elevation. Coastal erosion is also intensifying, predicted to cause 38% land and beach loss with just a 0.5-meter sea level rise.
Saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources is another severe consequence. Aquifers, vital for drinking water and agriculture, become contaminated as saline water pushes inland. This degrades local water supplies and damages agricultural lands. Coastal infrastructure and settlements, where much of the Caribbean population resides, are directly threatened. An estimated 29 to 32 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean could be affected by sea-level rise if they live below a 3-meter elevation.
The degradation of natural coastal defenses exacerbates these vulnerabilities. Mangrove forests and coral reefs act as natural barriers, absorbing wave energy and protecting shorelines. However, these ecosystems are under stress, and their decline leaves coastal areas more exposed to destructive ocean forces. The compromised integrity of reefs, for instance, makes small islands increasingly vulnerable to wave action and storm surge.
Intensified Extreme Weather
The Caribbean is experiencing more intense hurricanes and tropical storms, driven by warmer ocean temperatures. Since the mid-1970s, hurricane destructiveness has trended upward, with more intense tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic since the 1990s. Warmer waters provide more energy, leading to stronger winds and heavier rainfall. For example, a 2°C temperature rise could increase extreme hurricane rainfall likelihood by four to five times in the Bahamas.
Precipitation patterns are also changing, leading to both prolonged droughts and more intense flooding. While some areas may see increased precipitation in certain months, the overall annual mean precipitation across the Caribbean is projected to decrease. This creates a paradox of water scarcity punctuated by destructive deluges. Droughts are becoming more frequent and intense, impacting water availability for agriculture and other uses.
Conversely, intense rainfall events cause repeated localized flooding. Even in areas with decreasing total precipitation, heavy rainfall events are increasing. These extreme weather events damage infrastructure, housing, and livelihoods, disrupting daily life and hindering economic activity. Communities face a cycle of destruction and recovery, straining resources and resilience.
Ocean Health Decline
Ocean warming significantly impacts Caribbean marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs. Warmer waters cause coral bleaching, where corals expel symbiotic algae, leading to color loss and increased disease susceptibility. The Caribbean experienced major bleaching events in 1998, 2010, 2015/16, and a severe event in mid-2023, causing 60-100% bleaching on some reefs. This degradation threatens vital ecosystems, estimated to be worth US$3.1 to 4.6 billion annually to the region.
Ocean acidification, from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide absorption, further compromises marine life. Since the Industrial Revolution, seawater pH has decreased by 0.1 units, a 26% acidity increase. This chemical change reduces carbonate ions, essential building blocks for marine organisms like corals and shellfish. The Caribbean has seen a 3% decline in ocean surface aragonite saturation relative to pre-industrial levels.
The combined effects of warming and acidification have profound implications for marine biodiversity and fisheries. Coral reefs are fundamental to the region’s food security and economy, providing habitat for commercially important marine species and protecting coastlines. Their degradation can lead to reduced fish populations and jeopardized livelihoods for fishing communities.
Socio-Economic and Human Well-being Impacts
Environmental changes driven by climate change significantly impact socio-economic well-being across the Caribbean. The tourism industry, a primary economic driver, faces substantial threats from damaged beaches and degraded coral reefs. Sea-level rise alone could reduce tourism revenue by 38% to 47% by 2100. Overall, potential annual losses to the region could total $22 billion by 2050 due to storms, infrastructure damage, and declining tourism.
Agriculture is also severely impacted, experiencing crop failures from increased droughts and floods, and saltwater intrusion into arable land. The region’s reliance on predictable weather patterns makes its agricultural sector vulnerable to shifting rainfall and temperature changes. This instability affects food security and farming livelihoods.
Human health is affected by heat stress from rising temperatures and an increased risk of vector-borne diseases. Extreme weather events destroy homes and communities, leading to mental health challenges and displacement. Infrastructure, including roads, ports, and buildings, sustains widespread damage from intense storms and rising sea levels, incurring substantial repair and rebuilding costs. These impacts can also lead to increased internal migration and potential social instability as people seek safer living conditions.