The Caribbean region, characterized by its Small Island Developing States (SIDS), faces a disproportionate threat from climate change despite contributing minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions. These nations are especially vulnerable due to their unique geography, featuring high concentrations of population and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. Their economies rely heavily on fragile natural resources, particularly marine and coastal ecosystems, placing them at the forefront of the global climate crisis. This threat is compounded by limited financial and technical capacity, making adaptation and recovery a continuous challenge.
Coastal and Marine Ecosystem Degradation
The chronic, slow-onset environmental changes driven by a warming planet are fundamentally altering the Caribbean coastline and its surrounding ocean environment. Sea level rise, occurring at a rate similar to the global average, is a primary driver of coastal erosion, threatening the physical integrity of the islands. A 0.5-meter sea level rise could result in the loss of approximately 38% of Caribbean beaches, which are a foundation of the region’s economy. This phenomenon also leads to saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers, contaminating potable water supplies and affecting agricultural land.
Ocean warming and acidification are causing widespread degradation of marine habitats, particularly coral reefs. Rising sea surface temperatures trigger coral bleaching events. The degradation of these complex carbonate structures is projected to result in a near-virtual collapse of coral-reef-associated ecosystems by 2050 in a worst-case scenario. The loss of coral reefs and mangrove forests removes the natural barriers that protect coastlines from wave action and storm surges. Mangroves are also threatened by accelerated sea level rise and changes in salinity, further reducing the islands’ natural resilience.
Acute Weather Events and Infrastructure Destruction
The Caribbean is situated within the Atlantic hurricane belt, and climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of high-impact weather phenomena. Warmer ocean temperatures provide more energy for tropical cyclones, leading to a trend toward more intense hurricanes and greater rainfall events. Climate models project that storms of Category 4 and 5 intensity will become more common in the region by 2050.
These powerful storms inflict immediate, catastrophic destruction on critical infrastructure across the islands. Roads, power grids, housing, and water treatment facilities concentrated along the narrow coastal plains are highly exposed to extreme winds, storm surge, and flash flooding. The cost of this damage is immense, with a single event sometimes erasing years of development gains; for example, Hurricane Maria cost Dominica the equivalent of 226% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2017. The destruction of infrastructure also leads to mass displacement, with over three million people displaced in the Caribbean following the 2017 hurricane season.
Impact on Economic Stability and Key Industries
The damage to the environment and infrastructure translates directly into severe economic vulnerability for Caribbean nations, whose economies are often highly concentrated. Tourism, which accounts for nearly 30% of the GDP for Small Island Developing States, is deeply threatened by coastal erosion and the loss of natural attractions. Damage to beaches, coral reef degradation, and the perception of danger from repeated extreme weather events can cause significant, long-term declines in tourist arrivals and revenue.
The commercial and artisanal fisheries sector also faces a substantial decline due to the collapse of marine ecosystems. The loss of coral reefs and seagrass beds, which serve as essential fish habitats and breeding zones, is causing fish distributions to change and numbers to decline. Climate change is predicted to cause a potential annual loss in landed fish values across the Caribbean and Latin America ranging from US\(1.21 to US\)2.72 billion.
Agriculture productivity is compromised by a combination of drought, flooding, and saltwater intrusion into arable land. Extreme events can wipe out entire harvests quickly, such as when Hurricane Ivan destroyed 70% of Grenada’s agriculture in 2004. The total economic costs of climate change inaction in the Caribbean, including hurricane damages and lost tourism revenue, are projected to reach US$10.7 billion per year by 2025.
Escalation of Public Health Risks
Climate change directly compromises human health by creating more favorable conditions for disease transmission and heat-related stress. Altered rainfall patterns and rising temperatures expand the geographic range and shorten the reproductive cycle of arthropod vectors, such as the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This shift has led to an increased prevalence of vector-borne diseases, including outbreaks of Dengue, Zika, and Chikungunya.
The Pan American Health Organization reported a more than 300% increase in dengue fever cases across Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024 compared to the five-year average, partly attributed to climate-related factors. Heavy rainfall and flooding contaminate water sources and sanitation systems, leading to increased risks of waterborne diseases. The repeated experience of destruction, displacement, and loss of livelihood also contributes to a rise in mental health impacts within affected communities.