The Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest inland body of water, represents one of the most profound ecological disasters in modern history. Its rapid and dramatic shrinkage across the past half-century seemed an irreversible environmental catastrophe. Recent reports of rising water levels and the return of aquatic life have prompted a cautious re-evaluation of its fate. The central question remains whether this massive water body is truly coming back, or if the apparent recovery is confined to only a small portion of the former sea.
The Scale of the Aral Sea Disaster
The devastating decline of the Aral Sea began in the 1960s due to a Soviet-era water management plan. Large-scale irrigation projects diverted the two main rivers feeding the sea, the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya, primarily for the cultivation of cotton.
The river diversions siphoned off up to 75% of the total flow that historically replenished the sea. By the 2000s, the sea’s water volume had decreased by more than 90%, and its surface area shrank significantly. This loss of water saw the sea level drop by approximately 23 meters (75 feet), transforming the coastline and destroying the local fishing industry.
Restoration Efforts in the North Sea
The northern portion of the former Aral Sea, known as the Small Aral Sea, lies entirely within Kazakhstan and is fed by the Syr Darya river. The government of Kazakhstan, supported by the World Bank, initiated the Syr Darya Control and Northern Aral Sea project to restore this area.
The centerpiece of this effort was the construction of the 13-kilometer-long Kok-Aral Dam, completed in 2005. This dike physically separated the North Aral Sea from the lower-lying southern basin. By preventing water from flowing south and evaporating, the dam allowed the northern portion to retain the inflow from the Syr Darya.
The results were swift and exceeded expectations. Within seven months, the water level rose by 3.3 meters (11 feet), and the total water volume has since increased by approximately 42% to about 27 billion cubic meters.
The influx of fresh water also dramatically reduced the salt concentration. Salinity levels dropped nearly fourfold, reaching around 10 grams per liter, which created a viable habitat for native fish species to return and thrive.
The Fate of the Southern Aral Basin
The partial success in the north stands in stark contrast to the continued desiccation of the South Aral Sea, shared by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The larger southern basin, once fed by the Amu Darya river, remains largely unrecovered because the river’s flow continues to be heavily diverted for irrigation in Uzbekistan.
The South Aral Sea has split into several smaller, hyper-saline remnants, with its eastern lobe drying up completely by 2014. The exposed former seabed transformed into the Aralkum Desert, spanning approximately 62,000 square kilometers. Without a major international effort to reduce upstream water usage, the southern basin is not expected to be restored.
The Aralkum Desert is the source of severe environmental hazards. Winds pick up an estimated 75 million tons of toxic dust and salt each year from the exposed lakebed. These dust storms carry remnants of agricultural chemicals, contaminating local air and soil over vast distances.
Local Benefits of Partial Recovery
The restoration of the North Aral Sea has brought tangible ecological and economic improvements to surrounding communities. The decrease in salinity and the rise in water levels facilitated a significant ecological recovery, with over 20 species of fish, including commercially valuable pike-perch and bream, returning to the waters.
This biological resurgence revived the local fishing industry, which had collapsed decades ago. The annual fish catch has risen to approximately 8,000 tons, creating jobs in harvesting and processing. This economic lifeline has helped reverse outward migration, with people returning to towns like Aralsk.
The expansion of the North Aral Sea has also begun to moderate the harsh local microclimate. The larger body of water helps temper temperature extremes, leading to slightly milder winters and cooler summers. This partial recovery provides a localized example of how targeted intervention can stabilize a damaged ecosystem and restore human prosperity.