The question of whether Texas is running out of water does not have a simple yes or no answer. The state faces a profound, long-term structural challenge driven by geography and climate variability colliding with explosive population and economic growth. Ensuring water security for the 50 million residents projected to live in Texas by 2070 demands massive investment and innovative management.
Current Water Availability in Texas
Texas’s water status reflects the state’s perpetual cycle of drought and recovery. Monitored water supply reservoirs collectively hold approximately 73.4% of their capacity, though this figure represents a statewide average, meaning some regions face significant deficits. The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates a persistent dry period across large portions of the state.
Approximately 27.8% of Texas is experiencing severe drought (D2) or worse, leading to local water restrictions, such as mandatory limits on outdoor watering. Hydrologic drought, which reflects the depletion of reservoirs and groundwater, is a slower-moving concern than meteorological drought. The current conditions put pressure on both surface water sources and subterranean reserves. The long-term trend of water scarcity remains a defining characteristic of Texas’s climate.
Key Drivers of Water Stress and Demand
The primary force stressing Texas’s water resources is explosive and concentrated population growth. The state’s population is projected to increase by over 70% between 2020 and 2070, rising to 51.5 million people. Much of this influx is concentrated in the “Texas Triangle,” the urban corridor connecting Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, which increases municipal water demand in water-stressed areas. While municipal water demand is projected to increase steadily, the state’s total existing water supply is projected to decline by 18% over the same 50-year period. This widening gap between supply and demand is the central challenge addressed in state planning.
Beyond municipal use, water is heavily allocated to key economic sectors. Agriculture has historically been the largest water consumer, accounting for roughly half of the total water consumed, primarily for crop irrigation. Energy production, including cooling for power plants and water for hydraulic fracturing, also contributes significantly to industrial demand.
Texas relies heavily on finite or shared water sources vulnerable to depletion. The Ogallala Aquifer, a massive underground reservoir underlying the High Plains region, is a non-renewable source being drawn down at an unsustainable rate. In some areas, water levels have dropped significantly, forcing some water districts to adopt a policy of “managed depletion.” Major river systems, such as the Rio Grande and the Colorado River, are subject to interstate and international agreements, limiting Texas’s independent control over their flow.
Long-Term Water Management Strategies
Texas addresses its long-term water needs through a comprehensive, bottom-up planning process mandated by state law. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) coordinates the State Water Plan, updated every five years, which forecasts needs and strategies for the next 50 years. The 2022 plan identified a potential water supply shortfall of nearly 7 million acre-feet per year by 2070 under drought conditions, which the state intends to bridge through a variety of projects.
A significant portion of the strategy involves developing new infrastructure and technology to tap unconventional sources. Desalination is a key strategy, with the state pursuing both inland brackish groundwater and coastal seawater treatment projects. Texas currently has 53 municipal desalination facilities, mostly treating brackish groundwater, and projects like the Corpus Christi Seawater Desalination Plant are advancing to provide drought-proof supply.
Water reuse, or recycling, is another high-volume strategy. The 2022 plan recommends projects that will produce over one million acre-feet of new supply annually by 2070. This includes both indirect potable reuse, where treated wastewater is returned to a reservoir or aquifer, and direct potable reuse, such as the system being developed by El Paso Water. The state is also investing in surface water strategies, recommending 23 new major reservoirs to increase storage capacity, two of which have already been completed.
Conservation and policy measures are central to the state’s forward-looking approach. The TWDB’s plan emphasizes efficiency across all user groups, with conservation and reuse strategies making up nearly 50% of the planned strategy volumes. State funding programs are targeting the modernization of aging municipal infrastructure to reduce system-wide water loss, estimated at 572,000 acre-feet per year. The state’s commitment to funding these strategies is substantial, with the 88th Legislature allocating significant funds to the Texas Water Fund and the State Water Implementation Fund for Texas (SWIFT) to finance the multi-billion dollar cost of these projects.