The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a powerful natural climate pattern capable of shifting weather across the globe. Understanding whether this pattern is in its warm, cool, or neutral phase is important for predicting regional weather, particularly in Texas, where it dictates the likelihood of drought, severe winter weather, and fire risk. This interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific directly influences the jet stream’s path. The current ENSO phase provides the clearest long-range forecast for what Texans can expect regarding precipitation and temperature.
Defining the El Niño Southern Oscillation
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a cyclical climate pattern defined by fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These temperature shifts establish three distinct phases that impact global atmospheric circulation. The El Niño phase, or “warm phase,” occurs when SSTs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are warmer than average. This warming suppresses the normal trade winds and shifts rainfall patterns eastward.
The opposite is the La Niña phase, or “cool phase,” marked by cooler-than-average SSTs in the same region. During La Niña, the trade winds intensify, pushing warm surface water westward. This allows colder, nutrient-rich water to rise to the surface in the eastern Pacific, a process called upwelling. The third state is ENSO-Neutral, where sea surface temperatures remain near the long-term average, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present.
Identifying the Current ENSO Phase Affecting Texas
Texas is currently under the influence of a La Niña phase, which is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center monitors this pattern using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). La Niña conditions are officially declared when this index is at or below -0.5 degrees Celsius for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods.
Forecasts indicate that this La Niña is likely to remain weak, with the highest probability for a transition to ENSO-Neutral conditions occurring between January and March 2026. Models currently favor a 61% to 68% chance of this transition by early spring. While a weak La Niña means its influence may be less pronounced than a strong event, the pattern still tilts the odds for specific weather outcomes across the Southern United States. This expected duration means La Niña’s influence will shape the final months of winter and the initial stages of the spring season for Texas.
Specific Seasonal Weather Predictions for Texas
The influence of La Niña conditions over Texas results in a high likelihood of a warmer and drier winter across much of the state. The polar jet stream is typically diverted northward during a La Niña, which reduces the frequency of cold air outbreaks and storm systems reaching the southern U.S. The seasonal outlook favors above-normal temperatures across Texas for the December-February period.
This warmer trend is paired with a forecast for below-normal precipitation, particularly for North and Central Texas. The reduced rainfall is a concern for drought conditions, which often expand and intensify across the Southern Plains during La Niña winters. The risk of wildfire is also elevated, especially into early spring, due to the combination of dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
Texans should still prepare for occasional, sharp cold snaps despite the overall warmer and drier pattern. The La Niña pattern does not eliminate the possibility of severe winter weather events. As the ENSO phase transitions to Neutral in early spring, the predictability of the weather decreases. However, the persistent dryness may continue to impact water resources and agricultural planning across the state. The seasonal outlook maintains the likelihood of warm climate across the Southern States, with the potential for drought expansion continuing into the new year.