The question of whether the wind is stronger or weaker than in the past is complex, often relying on individual perception of a highly variable natural phenomenon. Wind is driven by atmospheric pressure differences, making it subject to local geographical features and daily weather systems. To answer this, meteorologists turn to decades of observational data collected from surface measurement stations. These long-term trends reveal that global wind activity is more nuanced than a simple increase or decrease, involving a historical slowdown followed by a recent reversal.
What the Data Says About Global Wind Trends
For nearly four decades, historical meteorological records showed a distinct global trend of decreasing average surface wind speeds over land, a phenomenon scientists termed “global stilling.” This trend lasted from roughly the 1970s until around 2010. Data collected by anemometers indicated a global average reduction of surface wind speeds by approximately 5 to 15% over this period. This decrease translated to an average slowdown of about \(-0.140\) meters per second per decade for mid-latitude land areas.
This long-term decline was not uniform across the globe; some high-latitude and coastal regions, along with ocean surfaces, actually experienced an increase in wind speed. The overall trend, however, suggested a reduction in the kinetic energy of near-surface winds. This historical pattern of slowing winds has since been broken, with data showing a significant reversal that began around 2010.
Since the early 2010s, average wind speeds over land in many northern mid-latitude regions, including parts of North America, Europe, and Asia, have started to increase. This reversal has shown wind speeds picking up at a rate nearly three times faster than their previous rate of decline. Wind speeds have increased by roughly 7% since 2010, linked to decadal-scale changes in large-scale ocean-atmosphere oscillations. This recent shift demonstrates that long-term wind trends are dynamic, influenced by complex, multi-decadal natural cycles that govern atmospheric circulation.
Why Wind Feels Different Where We Live
The documented trend of historical wind stilling may seem to contradict the common feeling that one’s local area is just as windy, or even windier, than before. This discrepancy often arises because the global data reflects average wind speeds measured at standardized heights, while local perception is heavily influenced by non-climatic factors. One major influence is the changing physical landscape, particularly due to urbanization and vegetation growth.
The expansion of cities creates what is known as the “urban canopy effect,” where the increased number and height of buildings act as a significant drag force on low-level winds. This physical obstruction increases the roughness of the ground surface, reducing the overall momentum of the air flowing over the area. However, the urban layout also creates complex interference effects, channeling and accelerating wind flow through narrow street canyons.
These high-speed flows in localized areas can create a strong, gusty sensation that makes the wind feel more turbulent and intense to people on the ground, even if the regional average speed has decreased. Additionally, the accuracy of long-term local records can be affected by “anemometer bias.” This occurs when the measuring station’s environment changes, requiring meteorological data to be extensively homogenized to maintain an accurate time series.
Climate Change and Future Wind Variability
While the phenomenon of global stilling was observed for decades, the long-term influence of global warming is primarily expected to affect wind variability and the intensity of extreme events. The fundamental driver of large-scale wind circulation is the temperature difference between the warm equatorial regions and the cold polar regions. The Arctic is warming at a significantly faster rate than the rest of the planet, a process known as polar amplification. This uneven warming reduces the temperature gradient between the north and south, which in turn weakens the speed of the westerly winds that comprise the jet stream.
A slower jet stream tends to become wavier, developing deeper meanders that move more slowly across the globe. These larger, more persistent meanders can cause weather systems to stall for extended periods, leading to prolonged extreme events like extended droughts, intense heat waves, or severe flooding. Furthermore, while the average wind speed may have previously decreased, climate models indicate that the fastest winds within the upper-level jet stream are projected to get even faster.
For every one degree Celsius of global warming, these peak wind speeds are predicted to increase by about 2%. This intensification of the fastest air currents can increase clear-air turbulence for air travel and is associated with an increase in severe weather events. Therefore, the future of wind is less about a steady change in average speed and more about a general increase in the frequency and intensity of wind-related extremes.