COVID-19 hasn’t gone away, but it’s not surging right now. Wastewater surveillance from the CDC shows viral activity levels at “very low” nationally, with a score of 1.10 as of mid-April 2026. The virus continues to circulate year-round, and seasonal waves still happen, but the current picture is calm compared to past winters.
Where Things Stand Right Now
The best real-time indicator of COVID-19 activity in the U.S. is wastewater monitoring, which tracks viral particles in sewage systems regardless of whether people get tested. That data shows activity well below levels seen during recent winter peaks. Globally, the WHO has flagged elevated activity in parts of Central America and the Caribbean, western Africa, and some Pacific island nations, but no large-scale surge is underway in most regions.
The dominant variant globally remains JN.1, classified as a variant of interest by the WHO. Several sub-variants are being monitored, including KP.3.1.1 and NB.1.8.1, though none have triggered the kind of explosive spread seen with earlier Omicron waves.
COVID-19 Now Has a Seasonal Pattern
After several chaotic years, COVID-19 has settled into a more predictable rhythm. Research analyzing U.S. case data from 2020 through 2023 identified a clear annual cycle, with the largest peak arriving in early to mid-winter, similar to flu season. The data also showed smaller waves roughly every five months, meaning most years see two or three noticeable bumps in activity rather than one single winter spike.
This means a summer wave remains possible, as it has been in previous years, and another winter increase is likely. But these waves have generally become less severe over time thanks to widespread immunity from prior infections and vaccination.
What Current Symptoms Look Like
The symptom profile of COVID-19 has shifted over time and can vary depending on your vaccination status. The CDC’s current list includes fever or chills, cough, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, fatigue, muscle aches, headache, nausea, and diarrhea. Loss of taste or smell, once a hallmark of earlier strains, still appears but is less common with recent variants. Shortness of breath remains possible but is more typical in severe cases.
For most people with some prior immunity, current infections tend to feel like a bad cold or mild flu lasting several days.
Home Tests Still Work, With Caveats
Rapid antigen tests remain widely available but have real limitations. Their overall sensitivity sits around 59% compared to lab-based PCR testing. That means roughly four in ten infections can be missed, particularly early in the illness when viral levels are still low. When viral load is high (typically days two through five of symptoms), rapid tests catch about 91% of cases. As viral load drops, sensitivity plummets to as low as 6%.
If you test negative but still feel sick, testing again 24 to 48 hours later significantly improves your chances of catching an infection. A positive result on a home test is highly reliable, with a 97% chance of being a true positive.
Long COVID Risk Has Decreased
One of the biggest concerns throughout the pandemic has been long COVID, defined as symptoms persisting three months or longer after infection. A meta-analysis of 35 studies covering 160,000 patients across 19 countries found that the overall prevalence dropped from 36% in the pre-Omicron era to 23% during the Omicron era. The risk hasn’t disappeared, but prior immunity from vaccines and past infections appears to offer some protection against lingering symptoms.
Treatment Options for High-Risk Groups
Antiviral treatment remains effective against current circulating variants. Real-world data from a large study using electronic health records found that the primary antiviral pill reduced hospitalization risk by 39% and death risk by 61%, with the strongest benefit seen in older adults. Among patients 65 and older, the protective effect was especially pronounced, cutting the risk of severe outcomes by roughly 73%. For adults aged 40 to 64, the benefit was more modest. These treatments work best when started within the first five days of symptoms.
Updated Vaccine Recommendations
The 2025-2026 COVID-19 vaccine is available for anyone six months and older, though the CDC frames it as an individual decision rather than a blanket recommendation. The emphasis is strongest for people at higher risk of severe disease: adults 65 and older, people with chronic health conditions, and those who are immunocompromised.
If you’re between 12 and 64 and previously vaccinated, one updated dose is recommended, spaced at least eight weeks after your last shot. Adults 65 and older are advised to get two doses of the updated vaccine, with the second dose about six months after the first. You don’t need documentation of past vaccinations to receive a dose.
What to Do If You Get Sick
The CDC’s current guidance recommends staying home and away from others, including household members, while you have respiratory symptoms. The emphasis has shifted from strict day-count isolation rules to a symptom-based approach: stay home while symptomatic, and return to normal activities once symptoms are improving and any fever has been gone for at least 24 hours without medication. Wearing a mask around others for a few days after returning to activities adds an extra layer of protection, especially around people who are older or immunocompromised.