Sea level rise (SLR) represents one of the most serious long-term consequences of a warming planet. The increase in ocean volume is primarily driven by two physical processes linked directly to higher global temperatures. One driver is the thermal expansion of seawater, which occurs because the ocean absorbs over 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, causing the water molecules to spread out. The second major cause is the addition of water from melting land-based ice, specifically glaciers and the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, which flow into the ocean. Preventing further sea level rise requires a comprehensive global strategy focused on drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Stabilizing Global Temperatures to Halt Sea Level Rise
Preventing sea level rise is directly tied to stabilizing the global average temperature. The internationally agreed goal is to limit warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. Research suggests that even meeting the 1.5°C target may not be sufficient to prevent significant, long-term sea level change.
Current warming is already around 1.2°C, which has significantly accelerated the loss of ice mass from Greenland and Antarctica. Continued warming to 1.5°C is projected to still trigger several meters of sea level rise over the coming centuries due to the slow, persistent melting of polar ice sheets. To avoid high rates of sea level acceleration, global society must rapidly achieve net-zero emissions.
Reaching net-zero means that any remaining greenhouse gas emissions must be balanced by an equivalent amount of removal from the atmosphere. This is the only way to stabilize global temperatures and stop the ongoing thermal expansion and ice sheet melt.
Accelerating Global Energy and Infrastructure Shifts
The necessary temperature stabilization depends on a rapid transformation of the global energy and infrastructure systems. Fossil fuels currently supply approximately 80% of the world’s total energy, a share that must drop significantly by 2050 to align with net-zero pathways. This requires a shift toward renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and geothermal power, to decarbonize electricity generation across all regions.
The transition extends beyond electricity to the widespread electrification of transport. This involves replacing internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles and developing sustainable aviation fuels for the aviation sector. Accompanying this is the need to address methane, a potent greenhouse gas, by implementing measures to reduce leaks from oil and gas operations.
Industrial processes, particularly those involved in producing cement, steel, and chemicals, also require deep decarbonization. Solutions here include switching to green hydrogen, using carbon capture and storage technology, and developing new low-carbon materials. These sectors are difficult to transition away from fossil fuels due to the intense heat and chemical reactions involved in their manufacturing.
The overall infrastructure shift must also focus on energy efficiency, from residential buildings to industrial facilities. Reducing the total energy demand allows renewable sources to replace fossil fuels more quickly and effectively.
Active Removal of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
While reducing new emissions is paramount, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is already high, making the active removal of existing greenhouse gases a required supplement. This process, known as Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), is needed to counterbalance the residual emissions from sectors that are difficult to fully decarbonize, such as agriculture and certain industrial processes. CDR strategies fall into two main categories: nature-based solutions and engineered technologies.
Nature-based solutions are scalable and often cost-effective, leveraging the earth’s natural carbon sinks. Examples include reforestation and afforestation, restoring coastal ecosystems like mangroves and salt marshes (blue carbon initiatives), and improving soil management through regenerative agriculture practices. These initiatives sequester carbon and provide co-benefits like habitat restoration.
Technological solutions, while currently more expensive, offer the potential for more permanent storage. Direct Air Capture (DAC) uses engineered systems to chemically filter carbon dioxide directly from the ambient air. Once captured, this carbon is stored permanently in deep geological formations, a process known as Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS). Both removal methods must be rapidly deployed alongside deep emissions cuts to achieve the necessary net-negative emissions trajectory.
International Policy and Local Implementation
Achieving the necessary global scale of climate action requires a robust framework of international cooperation and effective local governance. International agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, provide the overarching structure by setting the collective goal of limiting global temperature rise. These agreements are monitored through international forums like the Conferences of the Parties (COPs), which periodically assess progress and call for increased national ambition.
National governments translate these international goals into binding regulatory frameworks. These frameworks include measures like carbon pricing mechanisms, renewable energy mandates, and strict efficiency standards across various sectors. These policies are essential for directing investment and creating the market conditions necessary to accelerate the energy and infrastructure shifts.
A large portion of climate mitigation action is ultimately implemented at the subnational or local level of governance. Cities and local authorities are important agents of change, often leading with ambitious initiatives that support national goals. Local actions include developing green building codes, investing in public transport electrification, and creating public-private partnerships to fund urban climate projects. This coordinated effort, flowing from international agreements down to community-level implementation, is the governance model for preventing further sea level rise.