Our emotions influence our decisions. The cool down bias describes a tendency where our judgment shifts as our emotional state changes. This bias makes it difficult to predict how we might act when feelings run high, based on how we think when calm. Understanding this bias can help us navigate daily choices with greater awareness.
Understanding the Cool Down Bias
The cool down bias describes how individuals underestimate the intensity of their future emotions when in a calm, rational state. When in a “cold” state—characterized by calmness or neutrality—people overestimate the stability of their current preferences and attitudes.
Conversely, when in a “hot” emotional state, such as anger, excitement, or anxiety, individuals underestimate the influence of these intense feelings on their decisions. This bias can lead to choices that are later regretted.
The Role of Emotional States
The psychological mechanism behind the cool down bias involves what researchers call the “empathy gap” between “hot” and “cold” emotional states. When someone is in a calm, “cold” state, they struggle to fully imagine the motivational power that intense “hot” states, like hunger, fear, or pain, can exert over their behavior. This disconnect means decisions made in a calm state may differ significantly from those made under emotional duress. Individuals in a “cold” state tend to underestimate the motivational force of their own future “hot” states, leading to a failure to prepare for or avoid situations that might induce these intense emotional states.
Impact Across Different Domains
The cool down bias manifests across various aspects of daily life, influencing decisions in financial matters, health choices, and personal relationships. In financial decisions, individuals might make impulsive purchases or investments when feeling euphoric or anxious, only to regret them later when calm. For example, emotionally detached investors may sell winning assets too early to lock in gains, while clinging to losing positions to avoid the perceived “emotional cost” of a sale. This reflects a tendency to prioritize immediate emotional satisfaction over long-term financial stability.
In health choices, the bias can lead to poor self-control; for instance, someone planning a diet while feeling full might underestimate the power of future cravings. They may fail to take measures to avoid high-risk situations, such as socializing in environments filled with unhealthy food options. This cold-to-hot empathy gap can also explain why people underestimate their risk of addiction.
Within personal relationships, the cool down bias can lead to misunderstandings and suboptimal outcomes. Partners in a calm state might struggle to empathize with the intense emotions of their loved one during a conflict, or overestimate how their calm resolve will hold up in a heated argument.
For instance, some research shows that between 36% and 52% of couples move in together within six months of dating, often without a deliberate decision. This is driven by a “progression bias” that prioritizes relationship continuation over potential rejection. This highlights how emotional investment can accelerate early in relationships, even without full rational consideration.
Strategies to Counteract the Bias
Recognizing and mitigating the cool down bias involves implementing concrete strategies that bridge the gap between our “hot” and “cold” emotional states. One effective approach is pre-commitment, where individuals make decisions in a calm state that bind their actions in a future emotional state. For example, someone aiming to reduce impulsive spending might set up automatic transfers to a savings account or use budgeting apps that restrict immediate access to funds. This creates friction for impulsive decisions.
Practicing emotional forecasting involves consciously imagining how one might feel and act in a specific future emotional state. This means taking a moment to pause and consider how potential “hot” emotions, like stress or excitement, could alter a planned decision. Taking three deep breaths can help calm the mind and facilitate a more rational response rather than an automatic snap judgment.
Seeking external accountability or using decision-making frameworks can also be beneficial. This might involve discussing important decisions with a trusted friend or mentor who can offer an objective perspective, or using a structured checklist before making choices. Being aware of how biases influence thinking can reduce their effects by approximately 29%, according to one study. Regularly reviewing decisions and learning from past instances where the cool down bias may have led to suboptimal outcomes helps to build self-awareness and improve future judgment.