How Rare Is a Blood Moon? The Science and Frequency

The term “Blood Moon” is a colorful nickname for a total lunar eclipse, suggesting a rare and dramatic celestial event. This spectacle occurs when the Sun, Earth, and Moon align precisely, causing the Moon to pass entirely into the darkest part of Earth’s shadow. The reddish-orange hue observed during these alignments is a result of fundamental physics involving light and our planet’s atmosphere. While globally common, the true rarity for any single observer depends entirely on timing and location.

The Science Behind the Red Hue

The reddish-orange color of a Blood Moon is a product of sunlight interacting with Earth’s atmosphere during a total lunar eclipse. Although Earth blocks direct sunlight from reaching the lunar surface, the Moon does not disappear completely into darkness because of atmospheric refraction.

Sunlight bends, or refracts, as it passes through the layer of air surrounding our planet, redirecting it toward the Moon’s surface. This atmospheric filtering process, known as Rayleigh scattering, removes most of the shorter-wavelength light, such as blue and green, which is scattered away by gas molecules. The longer-wavelength red and orange light passes through the atmosphere more easily, getting refracted onto the Moon.

Essentially, the Moon is illuminated by a ring of light composed of all the world’s sunrises and sunsets projected simultaneously onto its surface. The exact shade of red can vary significantly, depending on the amount of dust, volcanic ash, or clouds in Earth’s atmosphere at the time of the eclipse.

Global Frequency Versus Local Visibility

Total lunar eclipses are not rare on a global scale, but they feel infrequent to a stationary observer. On average, there are between two and five lunar eclipses of any type each year. Total lunar eclipses average about 1.5 per year, with at least two total eclipses occurring roughly every three years.

The rarity perceived by the average person is due to the geographical constraints of visibility. A total lunar eclipse can only be seen from the half of Earth where the Moon is above the horizon during the event, requiring the alignment to happen when it is nighttime locally. This geographical lottery dramatically reduces the chances of seeing a Blood Moon from one’s own backyard, making the local frequency closer to one viewing opportunity every few years.

Understanding Eclipse Cycles

The regular recurrence of total lunar eclipses is governed by the Saros cycle, which allows astronomers to predict these events with high precision far into the future. This cycle is a period of approximately 18 years, 11 days, and 8 hours, after which the Sun, Earth, and Moon return to nearly the same relative geometric alignment.

The extra eight hours in the cycle means that the Earth rotates about one-third of a turn further with each repetition. Consequently, the nearly identical eclipse will be visible from a location shifted about 120 degrees of longitude to the west of the previous viewing spot. This predictable, long-term pattern allows eclipses to be organized into Saros series, each lasting over a thousand years.

Distinguishing True Blood Moons from Lookalikes

A true Blood Moon is strictly defined as a total lunar eclipse, where the Moon is fully immersed in Earth’s darkest shadow, the umbra, allowing the red light to dominate. Separately, the Moon can appear reddish when it is low on the horizon due to increased atmospheric reddening from dust or smog, which is a local weather phenomenon, not a celestial alignment.

Partial lunar eclipses occur when only a section of the Moon passes through the umbra, resulting in only a portion of the Moon appearing reddish or significantly darkened. The most subtle event is a penumbral lunar eclipse, where the Moon only passes through the faint outer shadow of Earth, the penumbra. This event causes only a slight, often imperceptible, dimming of the Moon’s brightness, and no prominent red color is visible to the naked eye.