How Often Do Stars Die in Our Galaxy and the Universe?

Stars are dynamic celestial bodies that undergo extensive life cycles. They form from vast clouds of gas and dust, powered by nuclear fusion in their cores. Over billions of years, stars evolve, eventually reaching the end of their lives, often in events that shape the universe.

The Various Fates of Stars

The ultimate fate of a star is determined by its initial mass. Stars similar in mass to our Sun conclude their lives by shedding their outer layers to form a planetary nebula. This process leaves behind a dense, hot core known as a white dwarf, which slowly cools over billions of years without further nuclear fusion. White dwarfs are compact objects, roughly the size of Earth, composed primarily of carbon and oxygen.

More massive stars, typically those at least eight times the Sun’s mass, experience an explosive end in events called supernovae. These explosions occur when the star’s core exhausts its nuclear fuel and collapses under its own gravity. Supernovae are categorized into types, with Type Ia resulting from white dwarfs in binary systems accreting too much mass and exploding, and Type II originating from the core collapse of massive stars.

Following a Type II supernova, the stellar remnant can become either a neutron star or a black hole, depending on the remaining core’s mass. Neutron stars are dense objects, about 10 kilometers in radius, formed when protons and electrons are crushed together into neutrons. If the collapsed core exceeds about three solar masses, gravity overcomes all other forces, leading to the formation of a black hole, a region of spacetime where gravity is so strong that nothing, not even light, can escape.

Frequency in Our Galaxy

In the Milky Way galaxy, stellar deaths occur at measurable rates, though explosive events are relatively infrequent. Supernovae, the most luminous and energetic stellar deaths, are estimated to happen roughly once every 50 to 100 years. Core-collapse supernovae, originating from massive stars, occur about 1.9 times per century, while Type Ia supernovae are rarer, estimated at once every 500 years. The last supernova directly observed in the Milky Way was Kepler’s Supernova in 1604, followed by Tycho’s Supernova in 1572.

The vast majority of stars, including our Sun, will end their lives as white dwarfs. While not an explosive event, white dwarf formation is far more common than supernovae. These stellar remnants form as lower and medium-mass stars gradually shed their outer layers, leaving behind their cooling cores. Consequently, the Milky Way contains a substantial population of white dwarfs, outnumbering neutron stars and black holes.

Neutron stars and stellar-mass black holes form as direct consequences of massive star supernovae. Their formation rates in the Milky Way are intrinsically linked to the frequency of these explosive events. While specific direct formation rates are not precisely counted, the estimated supernova rate indicates how often these compact objects are born within our galaxy. The Milky Way is expected to contain hundreds of millions to a billion stellar-mass black holes, though only a small fraction have been directly observed.

Frequency Across the Cosmos

Beyond our galaxy, the scale of the universe means stellar deaths are constant and widespread events, despite their relative rarity in any single galaxy. The observable universe is estimated to contain between 200 billion and 2 trillion galaxies. Each of these galaxies hosts billions to trillions of stars.

Given the vast number of galaxies, the cumulative rate of supernovae across the observable universe is staggering. While a typical galaxy like the Milky Way experiences only one to three supernovae per century, this translates to a large number of explosions when scaled up. Estimates suggest that between 10 and 1,270 supernovae occur every second across the observable universe. This constant process enriches the universe with heavier elements through the ongoing cycle of star formation and death.

Most distant supernovae are too faint or too far away to be directly observed, but their collective occurrence highlights the dynamic nature of the cosmos. The immense scale means that even rare individual events become frequent on a universal timescale. This continuous process of stellar demise plays a role in the cosmic ecosystem, recycling matter and energy that contribute to the formation of new stars, planets, and even life.

How Astronomers Track Stellar Deaths

Astronomers employ various methods to detect and study stellar deaths, allowing them to calculate the frequencies of these cosmic events. Observational astronomy relies on telescopes operating across the electromagnetic spectrum. Optical telescopes detect the sudden brightening of a supernova, which can outshine an entire galaxy, and track its gradual fading. X-ray and gamma-ray telescopes are used for observing the high-energy radiation emitted during supernova explosions and from the dense remnants they leave behind.

Surveys using wide-field telescopes systematically scan large areas of the sky, comparing images taken at different times to identify new light sources indicative of supernovae. Once a potential event is identified, astronomers use spectroscopy to analyze the light from the explosion, which reveals the chemical composition, temperature, and velocity of the ejected material. This spectral analysis helps classify the type of supernova and provides insights into the progenitor star.

Beyond electromagnetic radiation, gravitational wave astronomy offers a window into observing stellar remnants. While not directly detecting supernova explosions, instruments like LIGO and Virgo can detect gravitational waves produced by the mergers of neutron stars or black holes, which are the end products of stellar deaths. These detections provide additional data points for understanding the populations and formation rates of these compact objects. By combining direct observations with statistical analysis, astronomers extrapolate event rates from well-studied galaxies to estimate the overall frequency of stellar deaths throughout the universe.