The Arctic region represents one of the world’s last great frontiers for conventional energy resources. This vast area includes landmasses, continental shelves, and deep ocean basins. Estimates focus on the volume of petroleum that has not yet been discovered but is inferred to exist based on geological data. This estimated volume is distinct from known, proven reserves. The primary figures concern undiscovered resources that are technically recoverable, meaning they could be extracted using existing technology, irrespective of the financial cost involved.
The Major Assessment of Undiscovered Resources
The most comprehensive public data on Arctic petroleum potential comes from the 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA). This study estimated the mean total of undiscovered, conventional oil and natural gas resources north of the Arctic Circle to be approximately 412 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). This total represents roughly 22% of the world’s undiscovered, technically recoverable resources.
The assessment broke down the total, revealing a disproportionate amount of natural gas compared to crude oil. The mean estimate for undiscovered crude oil is approximately 90 billion barrels (BBO). In contrast, the region is estimated to hold about 1,669 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Natural gas is significantly more abundant than oil, estimated to be more than three times the volume of crude oil. The CARA study examined 33 geological provinces, quantitatively assessing 25 of them for potential petroleum accumulations. These estimates are based on geological risk modeling and do not factor in the economic and logistical challenges of Arctic extraction.
Geographic Concentration of Reserves
The estimated undiscovered resources are not evenly distributed across the Arctic, but are highly concentrated in a few key geological provinces. Approximately 84% of the total undiscovered oil and gas is expected to be located in offshore areas. These offshore continental shelves, rather than the deeper ocean basins, are the primary focus for potential resource development.
The majority of the undiscovered crude oil is concentrated in the North American portion of the Arctic. About 60% of the total oil volume is confined to just six assessment units. The single largest estimate for undiscovered oil is found in the Alaska Platform, part of the Arctic Alaska Basin, which is estimated to hold around 27.9 BBO.
Other significant oil concentrations include the Amerasia Basin, north of Canada, and the East Greenland Rift Basins, each estimated to hold several billion barrels of oil. Conversely, the vast majority of the natural gas resources are concentrated in the Eurasian Arctic. The West Siberian Basin and the East Barents Basin are estimated to hold nearly half of the Arctic’s total undiscovered resources, which are overwhelmingly natural gas.
Distinguishing Undiscovered from Recoverable Oil
The term “undiscovered” is a geological concept, meaning the resource is inferred to exist based on the understanding of the area’s sedimentary rock formations and petroleum systems, but has not been confirmed by drilling. The estimates provided by the USGS are for resources that are “technically recoverable.” This definition means that, given current technology, the petroleum could physically be brought to the surface.
Critically, technical recoverability does not take into account the financial viability of the operation. The high cost of operating in the extreme Arctic environment—dealing with deep water, sea ice, extended periods of darkness, and the vast distance from existing infrastructure—means that only a fraction of the technically recoverable resources are considered “economically recoverable.” Economically recoverable oil is the portion that can be produced at a profit under prevailing market conditions and technology costs.
The harsh conditions, including the need for specialized drilling equipment to contend with ice and permafrost stability, elevate the expense of any potential Arctic project far above those in temperate regions. Therefore, the actual volume of oil and gas that will eventually be extracted will be significantly smaller than the large “undiscovered, technically recoverable” figures. The final amount depends heavily on future technological advancements and the global price of crude oil.