How Many Totoaba Are Left in the Wild?

The Totoaba (Totoaba macdonaldi) is a large marine fish endemic to the Gulf of California, Mexico, and its population levels are a significant global conservation concern. The species is currently listed as Vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), although its population remains severely depleted from historical levels. The status of the Totoaba has been elevated to a major international issue due to the intense illegal fishing pressure it faces.

Anatomy, Habitat, and Life Cycle

The Totoaba is the largest member of the Sciaenidae family, commonly known as the drums or croakers, and can reach lengths of over two meters and weigh more than 100 kilograms. It is a long-lived species, with individuals surviving for decades. Its life history makes it highly susceptible to overexploitation because sexual maturity is late, typically occurring around six or seven years of age. This slow reproductive rate severely limits the population’s ability to rebound from heavy fishing pressure.

The fish is found exclusively in the Gulf of California, but it undertakes a distinct annual migration to complete its life cycle. Adults spend most of the year in the deeper, cooler waters of the central and southern Gulf. Between February and May, the mature fish migrate northward to the shallow, turbid waters of the Upper Gulf of California and the Colorado River Delta.

This specific area is the sole known spawning ground for the entire species. Adults form dense aggregations there to reproduce, making them particularly vulnerable to fishing during this period. After spawning, the adults return south, while the juveniles remain in the estuary-like conditions of the Upper Gulf for their first two to three years of development before migrating to the larger Gulf waters.

Current Population Estimates and Monitoring

Quantifying the precise number of Totoaba remaining in the wild is a complex scientific challenge, as the fish inhabit deep, open water for much of the year. Due to the difficulty in obtaining a direct census of the total population, no official estimate for the total number of mature individuals exists under IUCN guidelines. However, scientific analyses calculate the effective population size of breeding adults, which accounts for the genetic contribution of individuals to the next generation.

This effective breeding population is currently estimated to range between 2,000 and 11,000 adults. This low number reflects a species that has been severely reduced from its historical abundance. Although the IUCN reclassified the fish from Critically Endangered to Vulnerable in 2021, this change reflects stabilization at a low level rather than a full recovery.

Researchers monitor annual spawning aggregations using Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM). As a croaker species, the Totoaba produces a characteristic “croaking” sound by vibrating its swim bladder during courtship and spawning. Hydrophones are deployed across the Upper Gulf to detect and localize these acoustic signals, allowing scientists to estimate the size and distribution of the reproductive biomass without direct capture. This acoustic data, combined with population models and juvenile trawling surveys, provides the most current measure of the species’ status.

Key Factors Driving Population Decline

The primary driver of the Totoaba’s population crisis is the intense illegal fishing targeting its swim bladder, locally known as buche. This internal organ is highly prized in East Asian markets, particularly in China, where it is falsely believed to possess medicinal properties and is viewed as a status symbol. The high commercial value means a single large swim bladder can sell for tens of thousands of U.S. dollars on the black market, creating a powerful economic incentive for poaching.

Illegal fishermen use large, nearly invisible gillnets to capture the migrating adult Totoaba in the Upper Gulf. This fishing method is highly destructive and non-selective. These same gillnets are responsible for the catastrophic decline of the Vaquita porpoise (Phocoena sinus), the world’s most endangered marine mammal, which is endemic to the same tiny area. Vaquita are caught as bycatch in the nets set for Totoaba, driving the porpoise to the brink of extinction.

The species also suffered historical damage from commercial overfishing. An intensive commercial fishery existed in the Gulf of California during the mid-20th century, which led to a dramatic population collapse and a complete fishing ban in 1975. Another contributing factor is the ecological alteration of its spawning habitat. Dams constructed on the Colorado River have significantly reduced freshwater flow into the Gulf, altering the estuarine conditions necessary for Totoaba spawning and juvenile development.

Conservation Measures and Recovery Outlook

Conservation efforts focus on protecting the species’ limited spawning habitat and combating the illegal trade network. The core area of the Totoaba’s range is protected within the Upper Gulf of California and Colorado River Delta Biosphere Reserve, established by the Mexican government. Internationally, the species is listed under Appendix I of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), which prohibits all commercial international trade.

To supplement the wild population, conservation programs have undertaken the release of hundreds of thousands of captive-bred juvenile Totoaba into the Gulf. This restocking effort aims to bolster the number of young fish surviving to maturity, though the long-term impact of these releases is still under scientific evaluation. Enforcement remains a major challenge, as the lucrative illegal trade has attracted organized criminal involvement, making patrol and interdiction efforts dangerous and complex.

The recovery outlook is heavily dependent on the success of these enforcement and conservation measures. Scientific data suggests the population has stabilized at a low level, and the species shows some resilience to environmental changes in its spawning grounds. However, any potential for meaningful recovery is fundamentally tied to the complete cessation of illegal gillnet fishing in the Upper Gulf, which continues to pose an existential threat to the remaining adults.