How Do Doctors Know How Far Along You Are?

Determining the age of a pregnancy, known as gestational age, is a fundamental task in prenatal care. This measurement, typically expressed in weeks and days, is calculated from the first day of the last menstrual period (LMP), but it is often refined by clinical and imaging assessments. Accurate dating is necessary for monitoring the fetus’s growth and development against expected milestones. Knowing the gestational age allows doctors to correctly time screening tests, interpret results, and plan for medical interventions.

Initial Estimates: The Last Menstrual Period Method (LMP)

The simplest and most traditional way to estimate gestational age and the Estimated Due Date (EDD) begins with the first day of the last menstrual period (LMP). This method assumes a standard 28-day menstrual cycle. The due date is calculated using Naegele’s Rule, which involves adding seven days to the LMP date and then subtracting three months, or simply adding 40 weeks.

This initial calculation provides a baseline, but its accuracy relies heavily on patient recall and consistency of the menstrual cycle. If a person has irregular cycles, has recently stopped using hormonal birth control, or cannot precisely remember the LMP date, this estimation can be inaccurate. Even with a reliable LMP, the confidence interval for this method can range widely, illustrating its limitations. Consequently, the LMP method serves primarily as a starting point that must be confirmed by more objective methods.

Clinical Assessments: Fundal Height and Pelvic Exams

Physical examinations offer a way for doctors to confirm or adjust the initial gestational age estimate. During an early prenatal visit, a doctor may perform a pelvic exam to assess the size of the uterus, which grows predictably in the first few weeks of pregnancy. The clinician compares the uterus’s size to what is expected for a given week of gestation. However, this method is subjective and provides only a rough approximation of age.

As the pregnancy progresses, typically after the first trimester, the measurement of fundal height becomes a standard clinical assessment. Fundal height is the distance, measured in centimeters, from the pubic bone to the top of the uterus (the fundus). After approximately 20 weeks, the fundal height in centimeters should correspond roughly to the number of weeks of gestation, plus or minus two centimeters.

While not used to set the due date, fundal height is an important tool for monitoring fetal growth throughout the second and third trimesters. A measurement that is too large or too small for the calculated gestational age may prompt further investigation, such as an ultrasound. Fundal height alone has a prediction error of about two weeks, confirming its role as a screening tool rather than a precise dating method.

The Gold Standard: Dating Scans and Ultrasound Measurements

Ultrasound imaging is the most reliable method used to establish or confirm gestational age, especially when performed early in the pregnancy. This accuracy stems from the fact that all embryos grow at a nearly identical rate during the first trimester, before genetic or environmental factors influence growth. The most accurate measurement taken during this time is the Crown-Rump Length (CRL), which is the length of the embryo or fetus from the top of the head to the bottom of the torso.

A scan performed between 8 and 13 weeks of gestation using the CRL measurement is accurate to within a narrow range of about five to seven days. If a reliable first-trimester ultrasound is available, its date takes precedence over the LMP date because the biological variability of fetal size is minimal.

In later stages of pregnancy, ultrasound dating relies on a combination of measurements, collectively known as fetal biometry, because growth rates begin to diverge. These measurements include the Biparietal Diameter (BPD), the Head Circumference (HC), and the Femur Length (FL). While these measurements are necessary for monitoring fetal growth and estimating weight, their accuracy for dating decreases significantly. By the second trimester, the dating accuracy expands to about 10 days, and by the third trimester, the margin of error can be as wide as three to four weeks.

Prioritizing Methods: When the Due Date Changes

The various methods used to estimate gestational age are prioritized according to a clinical hierarchy to ensure the most accurate date is used for care management. As soon as the LMP date and the results of the first accurate ultrasound are available, the doctor determines and documents the final Estimated Due Date (EDD). If the LMP date is uncertain or irregular, the date derived from the first-trimester ultrasound is used immediately.

When there is a discrepancy between the LMP and the early ultrasound, clinical guidelines dictate when the EDD must be changed, or “redated.” If a first-trimester ultrasound (before 14 weeks) differs from the LMP by more than seven days, the ultrasound date is used to set the new EDD. For ultrasounds performed between 14 and 22 weeks, the difference must be greater than 10 to 14 days to warrant a change.

Once the EDD has been established by an accurate first-trimester ultrasound, it is rarely changed, even if later scans suggest a larger or smaller fetus. A fetus measuring differently than expected in the second or third trimester suggests a growth variation rather than an incorrect due date. Changing the date late in pregnancy risks mismanaging the timing of delivery.