How Accurate Is PGS Testing for Down Syndrome?

Preimplantation genetic testing for Aneuploidies (PGT-A) is a method used during In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) to analyze embryos for chromosomal abnormalities before uterine transfer. This screening process helps identify embryos with the correct number of chromosomes. While the test is highly effective for certain errors, its accuracy in screening for conditions like Down Syndrome, which is caused by a specific chromosomal error, is not absolute and is influenced by biological factors inherent to early human development.

Defining Preimplantation Genetic Testing for Aneuploidies

PGT-A is a laboratory procedure that examines the chromosomal makeup of an embryo created through IVF. It screens all 23 pairs of human chromosomes to determine if the embryo has a normal count of 46 chromosomes (euploidy). Embryos with an abnormal number of chromosomes are termed aneuploid, and these irregularities are a primary cause of implantation failure and miscarriage.

The PGT-A process requires the embryo to develop to the blastocyst stage, typically on day five or six after fertilization. The embryo consists of the inner cell mass (ICM), which becomes the fetus, and the trophectoderm (TE), which develops into the placenta. A small, five-to-ten cell sample is carefully extracted from the trophectoderm layer in a procedure called a biopsy.

The biopsied cells are sent to a specialized genetics laboratory for analysis using techniques like Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS). This technology counts and analyzes the chromosomes within the sample. Down Syndrome is caused by Trisomy 21, where the embryo has three copies of chromosome 21 instead of two. PGT-A aims to identify this extra chromosome.

Statistical Reliability in Detecting Trisomy 21

For fully aneuploid embryos, where every cell possesses the same chromosomal error, PGT-A is a highly reliable screening tool. Accuracy is measured using statistical terms like positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). PPV indicates the probability that an embryo flagged as abnormal is truly abnormal, while NPV indicates the probability that an embryo flagged as normal is truly normal.

Studies comparing PGT-A results from trophectoderm biopsies with the chromosomal content of the entire embryo show high concordance for full aneuploidies. The negative predictive value for a euploid (normal) result is often above 94%, suggesting that a chromosomally normal determination is highly likely to be correct.

Conversely, the positive predictive value for an aneuploid result, such as Trisomy 21, is also excellent, often reported around 89% or higher. This indicates a high probability that an embryo identified as having an extra chromosome is correctly diagnosed. When a euploid embryo is transferred, the subsequent misdiagnosis rate (an ongoing pregnancy later found to be aneuploid) is exceptionally low, typically less than 1%.

This high statistical performance confirms that PGT-A effectively screens out embryos with clear, uniform chromosomal imbalances like Trisomy 21. The chance of the biopsy accurately reflecting this condition is very high. The primary limitations to PGT-A accuracy arise from the complex biological reality of early embryo development, not from a failure of the genetic technology itself.

Biological and Technical Factors Limiting PGT-A Accuracy

The primary biological phenomenon preventing PGT-A from achieving 100% accuracy is embryonic mosaicism. Mosaicism refers to the presence of two or more distinct cell lines within the same embryo: one chromosomally normal (euploid) and the other abnormal (aneuploid). This variation complicates the interpretation of the trophectoderm biopsy because not all cells share the same chromosomal makeup.

Since the biopsy samples only trophectoderm cells, it is susceptible to misdiagnosis. A false negative occurs if the biopsied cells are euploid, but the inner cell mass (ICM), which forms the fetus, contains aneuploid cells (e.g., Trisomy 21). Conversely, a false positive occurs if the biopsy samples only aneuploid cells from the trophectoderm, but the ICM is euploid.

This limited sampling means the PGT-A result is an inference about the entire embryo. The accuracy of an aneuploidy diagnosis significantly decreases when mosaicism is detected; the positive predictive value for a mosaic result drops to around 52%. This uncertainty leads to complex decisions regarding whether to transfer a mosaic embryo, as many can still develop into a healthy baby.

Technical Limitations

Beyond the biological challenge of mosaicism, technical limitations also contribute to the test’s accuracy. These include issues during the biopsy procedure, such as obtaining a sample with too few cells, or technical problems in the laboratory, such as DNA amplification failure. Furthermore, the resolution of the genetic sequencing technology dictates the smallest chromosomal segment that can be reliably detected, meaning very small deletions or duplications may be missed.

Confirmation Testing Following Embryo Transfer

Despite the high accuracy of PGT-A for full aneuploidies, it remains a screening test, not a diagnostic one. Therefore, follow-up testing is routinely recommended by specialists once a successful pregnancy is achieved after the transfer of a PGT-A-screened embryo. This accounts for the possibility of a false negative result caused by undetected mosaicism in the inner cell mass.

The initial step in confirmation testing is often Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing (NIPT). NIPT analyzes cell-free fetal DNA circulating in the mother’s blood, typically starting around 10 weeks of gestation, providing a highly accurate risk assessment for common aneuploidies, including Trisomy 21.

If the NIPT result is concerning or definitive confirmation is desired, invasive diagnostic tests are available. The two main options are Chorionic Villus Sampling (CVS) in the first trimester, or amniocentesis in the second trimester. These procedures obtain cells directly from the placenta or amniotic fluid, providing a definitive chromosomal analysis of the fetus. These diagnostic tests bypass the sampling limitations of the PGT-A trophectoderm biopsy, offering the most conclusive information.