Virginia experiences a range of impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms, which are a recurring feature of its climate. While direct landfalls of strong hurricanes are less common, the state frequently contends with significant effects from storms tracking nearby or their remnants. These weather systems bring various hazards, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding.
Virginia’s History with Hurricanes
Official weather records in Norfolk date back to 1871, showing Virginia’s long history with tropical cyclones. Since that time, 123 hurricanes and tropical storms have affected the state. On average, a tropical storm or its remnants can be expected to impact Virginia annually, while a hurricane is anticipated approximately once every 2.3 years. Historically, the eye or center of 69 tropical cyclones has tracked directly across Virginia, and 11 have made landfall on or close to the Virginia coast within 60 miles.
Early colonial records document severe events, such as a September 1667 hurricane that reportedly caused the Chesapeake Bay to rise 12 feet. Another significant event occurred in October 1749 when the Bay rose 15 feet, contributing to the formation of Willoughby Spit. In more recent history, the 1821 Norfolk-Long Island Hurricane saw its eye pass directly over Norfolk, bringing 100 mph winds to the Eastern Shore. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 maintained hurricane-force winds up the East Coast, causing widespread damage and spawning tornadoes in Virginia. Hurricane Isabel in 2003 generated a substantial storm surge along the Chesapeake Bay, impacting coastal communities.
Vulnerable Regions and Potential Impacts
Coastal areas of Virginia are particularly susceptible to storm surge, a major threat during hurricane events. The Chesapeake Bay and its numerous tributaries can experience significant water level rises, even from storms passing offshore.
Inland regions face different primary hazards, mainly from heavy rainfall and subsequent widespread flooding. Even weakened tropical systems can unleash torrential rains across the state, causing rivers like the Roanoke and Dan to overflow their banks. High winds accompany many of these storms, capable of causing extensive property damage, downing trees, and leading to widespread power outages. Additionally, hurricanes and their remnants can spawn tornadoes across Virginia, sometimes far from the coast. Hurricane David in 1979 spawned eight tornadoes in Virginia, while Hurricane Gracie in 1959 produced F3 tornadoes that resulted in 11 fatalities.
Factors Influencing Hurricane Activity in Virginia
Virginia’s hurricane activity aligns with the broader Atlantic hurricane season, which typically runs from June 1 to November 30. Most tropical cyclones affecting the state tend to move from the southwest to the northeast. These storm tracks are often influenced by the western periphery of the Azores-Bermuda High-pressure system, which steers systems across the Atlantic.
As hurricanes track northward along the Atlantic coast, they frequently encounter cooler ocean waters. This change in water temperature typically causes the storms to weaken, which helps explain why direct landfalls of Category 3 or stronger hurricanes are rare in Virginia. However, storms that make landfall in neighboring states, particularly North Carolina, or those that pass offshore can still bring significant impacts to Virginia.
Understanding Direct Versus Indirect Impacts
Virginia experiences both direct and indirect impacts from tropical cyclones, though indirect effects are far more common. On average, a Category 1 hurricane makes direct impact on the Virginia coastline about once every 15 years.
More often, Virginia feels the effects of storms that pass offshore, make landfall in adjacent states, or have weakened into tropical storms or depressions by the time they reach the state. Despite being indirect, these impacts can still be severe. Heavy rainfall often leads to extensive inland flooding, which remains a primary threat from these systems. Strong winds and even tornadoes can also occur from these diminishing storms, causing considerable damage. For instance, Hurricane Agnes in 1972 entered Virginia as a depression but caused widespread flooding, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012 resulted in significant rainfall and coastal flooding on the Eastern Shore, even without a direct Virginia landfall.