Jacksonville, Florida, sits on the Atlantic coast of Northeast Florida, a region often called the First Coast. The simple answer to whether the city experiences hurricanes is yes, as all of Florida’s coastline is susceptible to these tropical systems. However, Jacksonville’s exposure to the most damaging hurricanes is significantly lower compared to areas further south in Florida or along the Gulf Coast. While direct landfalls of major storms are rare, the city and surrounding Duval County must still contend with the damaging effects of tropical storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and substantial storm surge. This unique risk profile means that while residents do not face the same frequency of catastrophic wind damage, they must remain highly prepared for serious flooding events.
Historical Frequency and Risk Profile
Duval County has a history of tropical cyclone impacts, though direct hits from powerful hurricanes remain low. Since 1880, only a handful of major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher, have significantly affected the area, with the last direct hurricane landfall occurring in 1964 with Hurricane Dora. Despite this low incidence of direct hurricane strikes, the area is affected by named tropical cyclones, including tropical storms or distant hurricanes, on average every two to three years.
Recent history demonstrates that even storms passing well offshore or making landfall elsewhere can cause substantial damage in Jacksonville. Hurricane Matthew in 2016 skirted the coast, yet still brought significant storm surge and flooding, along with widespread power outages and beach erosion. The following year, Hurricane Irma in 2017 made landfall far to the southwest in Florida but pushed record-breaking storm surge and rainfall up the St. Johns River, causing flooding in downtown Jacksonville unseen since the 19th century. These events highlight that the risk is less about the wind speed at landfall and more about the extensive water-related impacts from even weakened systems.
Jacksonville’s Geographic Shield
Jacksonville benefits from unique geographic and oceanographic factors that often act as a protective shield against the most powerful storms. The Atlantic coastline curves sharply westward just north of the city, which often directs storms tracking northward offshore toward the Carolinas instead of straight into Northeast Florida. This curvature means that hurricanes approaching from the south or southeast are less likely to make a direct, perpendicular landfall in the Jacksonville area.
Ocean temperatures also play a role in mitigating the storm threat to the region. The Gulf Stream, which carries warm water northward, typically tracks about 75 miles offshore of the Jacksonville coast. This distance means near-shore waters are often slightly cooler than those further south, which can cause an approaching hurricane to weaken or prevent it from intensifying further as it approaches the coast. This meteorological reality contributes to the rarity of a Category 3 or higher hurricane making landfall directly in Duval County.
Understanding Local Hazards
For Jacksonville, the dominant threat from a tropical system is water, specifically storm surge and freshwater flooding. The city is situated on the St. Johns River, a broad, shallow tidal river that flows north, making it highly susceptible to backwater flooding. When a storm approaches, persistent onshore winds push Atlantic Ocean water into the river’s mouth, which then propagates far inland, effectively reversing the river’s flow and causing water levels to rise dramatically.
The storm surge along the river is a major hazard for low-lying neighborhoods far from the beachfront, including Downtown, San Marco, and Riverside, where water levels have risen more than five feet in past events. The region’s flat terrain and the St. Johns River’s sluggish flow also mean that heavy rainfall drains very slowly. This leads to prolonged inland freshwater flooding, which compounds the danger from storm surge and can keep areas inundated for days or weeks.
Emergency Planning and Resources
Given the high risk of flooding, emergency preparedness in Duval County centers on understanding and responding to evacuation zones. The county uses a lettering system (Zones A, B, C, etc.) based primarily on the risk of storm surge inundation, not wind category. Residents should determine their specific zone well before a storm threatens, as evacuation orders are issued for specific zones based on the forecast surge threat.
The City of Jacksonville and Duval County Emergency Management utilize the JaxReady platform for disseminating information, including real-time alerts and official evacuation orders. Proactive steps include securing property, especially near the coastline and river, and having a family emergency plan that includes designated meeting places and pet arrangements. Main evacuation routes typically follow I-95 northward or I-10 westward; residents should plan for potential crowding and traffic delays.