Mexico is one of the most hurricane-prone nations globally due to its extensive coastline bordering two major ocean basins: the Eastern Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic (including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico). Mexico is regularly impacted by tropical cyclones, requiring preparedness for distinct storm tracks, seasonal patterns, and varying intensities on both its western and eastern shores.
Dual Threat: Pacific and Atlantic Basins
The tropical storm threat is split between two distinct areas of formation and impact. Storms generated in the Eastern Pacific basin often form off the southern coast near Oaxaca and Guerrero, typically tracking west-northwest parallel to the Mexican mainland. While the Pacific basin generates a larger number of named storms annually, many steer out into the open ocean, resulting in fewer direct landfalls. However, the Baja California peninsula remains highly susceptible to these Pacific storms due to their northwesterly track.
Conversely, the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, produces fewer overall storms but often with a higher potential for catastrophic landfalls. Storms tracking across the Caribbean gain immense energy before striking the Yucatán Peninsula. Systems tracking into the warm, shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico pose a severe threat to the coasts of Veracruz and Tamaulipas, often sustaining high intensity until landfall.
Hurricane Seasonality and Peak Activity
The official hurricane season timing differs slightly for each coast, though the peak danger period largely overlaps. The Eastern Pacific season runs from May 15 through November 30. The Atlantic season begins two weeks later on June 1 and concludes on November 30.
The highest probability for a tropical cyclone to make landfall occurs during the peak months of late summer and early autumn. Eastern Pacific activity generally peaks in late August. The Atlantic basin typically sees its highest activity in September, with a broad peak period extending from mid-August through early October.
Saffir-Simpson Scale and Landfall Intensity
The severity of a hurricane is measured using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which classifies storms from Category 1 (74-95 mph winds) up to Category 5 (157 mph or higher). While many tropical systems that affect Mexico arrive as weaker Tropical Depressions or Tropical Storms, the country has experienced several of the most powerful storms ever recorded. Coastal infrastructure vulnerability increases dramatically with each category jump, as higher wind speeds generate destructive storm surge and widespread physical damage.
Mexico has been struck by multiple Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, particularly on the Pacific coast, often following periods of rapid intensification. Hurricane Patricia in 2015 made landfall as a Category 5 near Cuixmala, and Hurricane Otis in 2023 struck the highly populated city of Acapulco as a Category 5. Otis’s explosive strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 in under 24 hours highlighted the danger of warm Pacific waters and low wind shear conditions.
The Role of Mexican Geography in Storm Impact
Mexico’s mountainous terrain significantly modifies the destructive potential of hurricanes after landfall. The rugged spine of the Sierra Madre Occidental and Sierra Madre Oriental mountain ranges acts as a natural barrier. As a hurricane moves inland, the friction and lack of warm ocean water rapidly strip the storm of its wind speed and organization, causing it to quickly weaken.
This rapid dissipation does not eliminate the threat; instead, it shifts the primary danger from wind to water. The forced ascent of moisture-laden air over the mountains causes extremely heavy rainfall, leading to severe inland flooding, river overflows, and deadly mudslides. This water-related damage often proves more destructive and costly to inland communities than the initial wind damage on the coast. Furthermore, the narrow landmasses of the Yucatán and Baja California peninsulas are particularly exposed, offering little opportunity for storms to weaken before moving back out over water or making a second landfall.