Whether the world will run out of gasoline involves a complex interplay between physical resource availability, the economics of extraction, and rapidly changing consumer demand. For transportation, “gas” refers to refined petroleum products. Its future is determined less by its finite nature and more by its impending technological and economic obsolescence. The answer involves understanding how new technologies have expanded supply while simultaneous policy changes and innovations have begun to erode demand.
The Geological Reality Defining Available Reserves
The conversation about running out of oil often confuses “reserves” with “resources.” Resources refer to the total amount of oil in the ground, while reserves are the estimated quantities that can be recovered economically using current technology and market prices. Reserves are not a fixed number but an ever-changing calculation based on technological advancement and cost.
The famous “Peak Oil” theory, developed by geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the 1950s, predicted that oil production would follow a bell-shaped curve, peaking and then declining due to physical scarcity. Hubbert’s model correctly predicted the peak of U.S. production in the early 1970s, but it failed globally because it did not account for future technological innovation. New methods like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking,” have dramatically unlocked previously inaccessible oil.
These technologies allowed vast quantities of oil trapped in shale formations to be converted from unrecoverable resources into proved reserves. Technological progress continues to redefine what is extractable, ensuring a sustained supply of petroleum for decades to come. Physically, the world is not close to running out of oil.
Economic Viability The Point of Extraction Difficulty
While oil is not physically scarce, the ease with which it can be obtained is declining, shifting the constraint from geology to economics. The concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROEI) measures the amount of energy gained from a resource compared to the energy invested in its extraction and processing. Historically, conventional oil fields yielded very high EROEI ratios, sometimes ranging from 18:1 to 43:1, meaning a small energy input produced a large energy output.
In contrast, the unconventional sources now dominating new supply require far greater energy intensity, leading to much lower EROEI values. Shale oil and gas extraction often results in EROEI ratios as low as 1.4:1 to 2:1, while oil sands projects range from 3.5:1 to 5.4:1. When the EROEI drops significantly, the cost of extraction rises rapidly, creating an “energy cliff” where a resource becomes economically unviable long before it is fully depleted.
This rising cost of production for marginal barrels makes alternative, non-petroleum fuels increasingly competitive, even with billions of barrels still underground. High-cost projects like deepwater drilling and complex shale operations require persistently high market prices to justify the massive capital investment. It is this economic tipping point, where the energy and financial cost of getting the fuel out of the ground outweighs the utility of the fuel itself, that will ultimately define the end of the gasoline era.
Shifting Demand The Role of Alternative Technologies
The most immediate threat to gasoline’s future comes from the demand side, driven by rapid technological advancements and strong regulatory action. The shift is most visible in the automotive sector, where Electric Vehicles (EVs) are quickly moving from a niche product to a mainstream option. Electrified vehicles, including battery-electric and plug-in hybrid models, accounted for 43% of global auto sales in the first quarter of 2025, a dramatic increase from just 9% in 2019.
This demand reduction is being accelerated by government policies designed to phase out the internal combustion engine (ICE). Numerous countries and regional bodies, including the European Union, have set mandates to end the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2030 or 2035. Canada, for instance, has mandated that all new light-duty vehicles sold must be electric by 2035, while the United Kingdom has set a target of 2030 for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars.
These regulatory deadlines compel global automakers to invest heavily in electric platforms and ramp up production, ensuring a steady supply of electric alternatives to meet the mandates. Even for existing gasoline vehicles, continuous improvements in fuel economy standards have slowed the growth of overall fuel consumption. The combination of mandatory phase-outs and consumer adoption of highly efficient alternatives is creating a structural decline in the demand for gasoline.
The Long-Term Energy Transition
The ultimate replacement for gasoline is not a single fuel but a diversified portfolio of advanced energy technologies, primarily centered on electrification and molecular fuels. For passenger transport, the future is largely defined by battery technology, where significant breakthroughs are moving beyond current lithium-ion designs. Solid-state batteries, for instance, are in development and promise to dramatically improve performance by replacing the flammable liquid electrolyte with a solid material.
This innovation offers the potential for higher energy density, faster charging times, and greatly enhanced safety, making electric vehicles more viable for a wider range of drivers. For heavy-duty transport, such as shipping and trucking, and for specialized applications like aviation, other solutions are emerging. Hydrogen fuel cells, which produce electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen with water as the only byproduct, are being advanced by new solid electrolyte materials that enhance their efficiency and simplify their design.
Additionally, advanced biofuels are being developed as “drop-in” replacements that can utilize existing infrastructure. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Renewable Diesel are produced from feedstocks like vegetable oils or waste products, and they are chemically identical to petroleum counterparts. These advanced biofuels are particularly important for sectors that are difficult to electrify. The economic and technological landscape is rapidly ensuring that we will choose to run our vehicles on something else.