The question of whether there are more trees now than ever before is not a simple yes or no proposition, as the answer depends entirely on the historical reference point. Considering the vast timescales of Earth’s history, the current global tree population is significantly lower than it was before the rise of human civilization. However, when looking at recent decades, the picture becomes more complicated, with substantial shifts and regional variations. To accurately assess the current state of global tree cover, it is necessary to understand the methods used for measurement and the historical scale of loss.
Defining the Measurement Problem
Accurately counting the world’s trees is complex, often involving a distinction between measuring “forest area” and counting “individual trees.” Traditional methods relied on labor-intensive manual field surveys, where data from small plots were extrapolated to estimate populations across vast regions. Today, researchers primarily use advanced remote sensing technologies, such as satellite imagery and airborne LiDAR, to monitor tree cover globally. This data allows for two distinct approaches: the area-based method, which estimates forest attributes like biomass, and individual tree detection. Global statistics often focus on “tree cover,” defined as woody vegetation over a certain height, including both natural forests and commercial tree plantations; this reliance on proxies makes direct comparison to pre-industrial eras challenging.
Global Historical Context of Forest Loss
To establish a historical baseline, one must look back to the period before large-scale human impact, roughly 10,000 years ago, following the last ice age. At that time, forests covered approximately 57% of the world’s habitable land, amounting to about six billion hectares. Since then, the world has lost about one-third of its forests, an area twice the size of the United States. The initial loss was gradual, driven by early agriculture, but the rate accelerated dramatically in recent history; half of the total loss occurred between 1900 and the present due to the industrial revolution and the boom in human population. Compared to this pre-industrial era, the world currently has drastically fewer trees.
Current Global Trajectories of Tree Population
Examining the trajectory of tree populations since the year 2000 reveals a complex pattern of simultaneous loss and gain. From 2000 to 2020, the world experienced a gross gain of nearly 131 million hectares of tree cover, an area roughly the size of Peru. However, this gain was significantly outweighed by the gross loss, resulting in an overall net loss of more than 100 million hectares of tree cover. This indicates the world is still on a negative trajectory, losing more tree cover than it accumulates annually. The majority of this gross loss is driven by the permanent conversion of natural forest to agriculture (deforestation), while gains often represent commercial plantations or regrowth that lacks the complexity of cleared old-growth forests.
Regional Divergence and Drivers of Change
The global net loss figure masks profound regional differences in tree cover change. The majority of permanent forest destruction is concentrated in tropical zones, such as the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and the Congo Basin. This loss is predominantly driven by the expansion of large-scale commodity agriculture, including cattle ranching, soy production, and palm oil plantations. The annual rate of tropical tree cover loss has increased in the 21st century, nearly doubling between 2001 and 2024. In contrast, many temperate and boreal regions have experienced a net gain, largely due to the abandonment of marginal agricultural land, allowing natural regrowth, and extensive afforestation programs in countries like China. Gains in Russia and Canada are often attributed to the regeneration of production forests following timber harvesting. This geographic split means that progress in regrowing forests is insufficient to offset the rapid and ecologically damaging losses occurring in the tropics.