A tropical cyclone, known in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane, is a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters. The answer to whether these powerful weather systems can occur in November is an unequivocal yes, and they can pose a significant threat. Although November marks the final month of the hurricane season, communities must remain vigilant for late-forming storms. This period is associated with unique meteorological conditions that can still fuel dangerous systems.
The Official End of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
The official Atlantic hurricane season is defined as the six-month period beginning on June 1st and concluding on November 30th. This window was established through decades of historical weather data analysis to capture the time when tropical cyclone formation is most likely. The dates reflect the climatological peak of favorable conditions for storm development across the basin. By late November, the tropical atmosphere begins to cool, and vertical wind shear—winds that can tear a developing storm apart—increases across the main development region. Despite these less favorable conditions, the official end date on November 30th serves as a reminder that the threat does not immediately disappear.
Historical Frequency of November Storms
While the storm count drops sharply after the climatological peak in September, November historically averages one to two named storms. Approximately 7% of all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin have formed during this final month. The historical record shows that these late-season systems are capable of reaching high intensity. Hurricane Kate in 1985, for example, peaked as a Category 3 storm and made landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2. More recently, Hurricane Nicole made a U.S. landfall in Florida as a Category 1 storm in November 2022. The year 2020 demonstrated the potential of November storms with the formation of two powerful systems. Hurricane Iota rapidly intensified to a Category 5 storm, becoming the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in Nicaragua in November, just two weeks after Hurricane Eta.
Shifting Areas of Formation
The geographical area where storms form shifts considerably as the season ages. By November, the vast Main Development Region, which stretches across the open Atlantic Ocean, typically experiences cooling waters and increased wind shear. These factors suppress the formation of the long-track hurricanes common in August and September.
The focus for late-season development moves closer to the equator and west, settling primarily over the warm waters of the Western Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Water temperatures in these enclosed areas often remain above the 80-degree Fahrenheit threshold needed to fuel tropical cyclones. Cold fronts begin pushing south out of the United States, and sometimes these fronts stall over the Gulf or Caribbean. The interaction between these stalled fronts and tropical waves provides the necessary atmospheric lift to initiate storm development, making the Western Caribbean the most likely spot for a November storm to emerge.
Typical Characteristics of Late-Season Systems
November storms often display specific characteristics that distinguish them from their mid-season counterparts. Due to shifting atmospheric steering currents, these systems can exhibit erratic and unpredictable tracks. Hurricane Lenny in 1999 earned the nickname “Wrong Way Lenny” because it moved from west to east across the Caribbean, an unusual path that caught many islands off guard.
A significant danger associated with these late-season systems is their ability to produce copious amounts of rainfall. Even if a storm does not reach hurricane strength, it can tap into deep tropical moisture, leading to severe inland flooding and mudslides. Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020 delivered estimated rainfall totals of 10 to 30 inches across parts of Central America, causing widespread hydrological impacts far from the coast. November storms also have the potential for rapid intensification, meaning a seemingly disorganized system can quickly transform into a major hurricane, leaving coastal residents with little time to prepare.