The Maldives, an archipelago of low-lying coral atolls in the Indian Ocean, is susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Over 80% of its land lies less than one meter above sea level, making it one of the world’s lowest-lying nations. This geography renders the country highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, projected to increase significantly by the century’s end, potentially by up to 0.9 meters under high-emission scenarios. While direct inundation is an obvious danger, rising seas act as a catalyst, unleashing a complex cascade of interconnected threats. These threats extend beyond coastal flooding, encompassing environmental, social, and economic challenges that jeopardize the nation’s habitability and long-term viability.
Impact on Freshwater and Land
Rising sea levels directly threaten the Maldives’ limited freshwater resources, primarily found in shallow underground reservoirs known as freshwater lenses. These lenses, formed by rainwater percolating through the soil and floating atop denser saltwater, are fragile due to the islands’ low elevation. Increased sea levels and more frequent storm surges lead to saltwater intrusion, contaminating these vital sources. By 2021, 97% of the Maldives’ islands had lost access to fresh groundwater, forcing 77% of the population to rely on harvested rainwater for drinking.
The contamination of groundwater has severe implications for hygiene and daily life, as traditional wells become unusable for non-potable uses like washing and bathing. While desalination plants provide potable water in the capital Malé and tourist resorts, this technology is costly and not widely accessible across all inhabited islands. Many remote communities face chronic water shortages, especially during dry seasons, often requiring expensive emergency water shipments.
Beyond freshwater, rising sea levels also cause land salinization, impacting agricultural practices. The influx of saltwater into the soil makes it less viable for cultivation, hindering the growth of traditional crops. Given that the Maldives imports approximately 90% of its food, this degradation of arable land compounds food security concerns.
To counter these challenges, the government and local farmers are exploring adaptive farming methods. Techniques such as hydroponics and vertical farming, which do not require traditional soil, are being introduced. Efforts also focus on developing climate-resilient crop varieties and improving rainwater harvesting systems to secure food and water supplies.
Erosion and Damaged Infrastructure
Rising sea levels intensify coastal erosion, posing a direct threat to the landmass of the Maldivian islands. By 2021, 90% of islands had experienced severe erosion, with some beaches disappearing overnight. This accelerated erosion is compounded by the degradation of natural coastal defenses, such as coral reefs, which absorb wave energy and protect shorelines.
Higher sea levels also lead to more frequent and severe storm surges and coastal flooding, directly damaging built environments. Infrastructure, including roads, airports, homes, and resorts, is increasingly vulnerable; 47% of homes are located within 100 meters of the coastline. Coastal roads often flood or become submerged, disrupting transportation and economic activities.
The tourism sector, a mainstay of the economy, is particularly affected, with over 90% of surveyed resorts reporting beach erosion and 60% experiencing infrastructure damage. This physical destruction places a significant economic burden on the nation, as constant rebuilding and protective measures are required. The Maldives currently spends $10 million annually on coastal adaptation, but estimates suggest a need for $8.8 billion to adequately protect existing islands. Without effective adaptation strategies, coastal flooding could damage up to 3.3% of the Maldives’ total assets by 2050, leading to substantial economic losses.
Threats to Marine Ecosystems and Food Supplies
The Maldives’ marine ecosystems, particularly its coral reefs, face threats from rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, both linked to global climate change. Elevated ocean temperatures cause coral bleaching, a phenomenon where corals expel symbiotic algae, leading to their degradation and often death. The Maldivian reefs have experienced bleaching events, with reported coral mortality ranging from 60% to 100% in past occurrences, such as the 2016 global event.
These coral reefs are foundational to the Maldives’ marine biodiversity, serving as important habitats and nurseries for countless fish species. Their decline directly affects the abundance and diversity of marine life, leading to a reduction in fish populations. This ecological disruption has direct consequences for the Maldivian diet, which relies heavily on fish for over half of its protein intake, threatening the food security of local communities.
The nation’s fishing industry, the second-largest economic contributor and a major source of livelihood for many Maldivians, is severely impacted. Changes in ocean temperatures are altering fish migration patterns, forcing fishermen to venture farther from shore, increasing operational costs and reducing catch availability. Projections indicate that fish catches could decline by up to 100% by the end of the century under high-emission scenarios, jeopardizing the economic sustainability of fishing communities and the nation’s export earnings.
Ocean acidification, a consequence of increased carbon dioxide absorption by the oceans, stresses marine life. It can affect the early life stages of fish and disrupt marine food chains, compounding the challenges faced by the Maldives’ fisheries. The combined effects of these marine environmental changes pose a significant risk to both the ecological balance and the sustenance of the Maldivian people.
Humanitarian and Economic Challenges
The cascading effects of rising sea levels present significant humanitarian and economic challenges for the Maldives, including potential large-scale human displacement. As islands become increasingly uninhabitable due to saltwater intrusion, coastal erosion, and frequent flooding, communities face difficult choices about relocation. While much migration has been internal, often towards the capital Malé, long-term implications include potential international climate migration, a concern raised by Maldivian leaders exploring land acquisition abroad.
The tourism industry, the mainstay of the Maldivian economy, contributing between 30% and 40% of its GDP, faces severe risks. Environmental degradation, such as widespread coral bleaching and beach erosion, diminishes the natural beauty that attracts over 1.5 million tourists annually. The perception of the Maldives as a “vanishing paradise” could deter visitors, leading to significant revenue losses and impacting the livelihoods of a large percentage of the population employed in this sector.
Beyond tourism, the broader economy is under considerable strain. Coastal flooding alone could cause damages amounting to $0.7–1.1 billion by 2050, with projected GDP losses of 2.3% by 2050 and potentially 12.6% by 2100 under high-emission scenarios. The significant financial burden of adaptation measures, including costly infrastructure protection and potential resettlement, contributes to a high public debt, which stood at 123% of GDP in 2023. This financial strain diverts resources from other essential services and development goals, necessitating substantial international financial support.
The human cost extends to the potential loss of cultural heritage, as communities are forced to abandon ancestral islands. The unique traditions, social structures, and historical sites, intertwined with the specific geography of each island, are threatened by relocation. This disruption represents a significant non-economic loss, challenging the identity and continuity of the Maldivian people.