The Maldives, an archipelago of approximately 1,190 coral islands in the Indian Ocean, faces a profound environmental challenge: sea level rise. This low-lying nation, known for its pristine beaches and marine life, is increasingly threatened by rising waters, impacting its environment, economy, and population.
Understanding Sea Level Rise in the Maldives
Global sea level rise is primarily driven by two phenomena: the thermal expansion of ocean water and the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. As the Earth’s atmosphere warms, the oceans absorb a significant portion of this heat, causing the water to expand and occupy more volume. Concurrently, increasing global temperatures lead to the accelerated melting of ice formations, such as the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and mountain glaciers, adding vast quantities of water to the oceans.
The Maldives is uniquely vulnerable to these changes due to its geological characteristics. More than 80% of its islands lie less than one meter above sea level, making it the country with the lowest average terrain in the world. This low elevation means that even a small increase in global sea levels can have disproportionate impacts on the islands. The archipelago’s coral limestone composition also makes the islands inherently less resistant to rising waters compared to other coastal regions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that global sea levels could rise by about half a meter by 2100 even with sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and potentially up to one meter if emissions continue to increase strongly. The Maldives has experienced an average annual sea level rise of just under 4 mm between 1992 and 2015. However, projections suggest this rate could increase to between 6 and 12 mm per year under severe warming scenarios, potentially leading to a rise of 0.5 to 0.9 meters by the end of the century.
Direct Impacts on the Maldives
Sea level rise presents a range of specific, tangible consequences for the Maldives, affecting both its natural environment and human societies. One of the most immediate environmental impacts is coastal erosion, which has been reported on all inhabited islands, threatening infrastructure, homes, and habitats like mangroves and wetlands. Over 90% of resorts surveyed have reported beach erosion, with 60% experiencing infrastructure damage.
Saltwater intrusion into freshwater lenses is a major concern, directly affecting drinking water supplies and agricultural viability. The islands rely on shallow freshwater aquifers, often just 1 to 1.5 meters below the surface and only a few meters thick, which are highly susceptible to salinization from rising seawater. This contamination affects groundwater, traditionally used for non-potable purposes, though 90% of atoll households now primarily use rainwater for drinking.
Marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, face threats from warming ocean temperatures and ocean acidification, leading to widespread coral bleaching. The 2016 global bleaching event, for example, affected over 60% of the Maldives’ coral reefs. The degradation of these reefs not only threatens marine biodiversity but also diminishes their natural role as barriers against wave action, exacerbating coastal erosion.
The socio-economic impacts are significant, with vulnerable coastal communities facing increased risks of displacement and loss of income. The tourism and fishing industries, which together contribute nearly half of the nation’s GDP and employment, are highly susceptible to these changes. Much of the infrastructure supporting these sectors, including hotels, airports, and harbors, lies within 100 meters of the coastline, making them vulnerable to increased coastal flooding and erosion. The World Bank projects that without effective adaptation strategies, coastal flooding could severely damage up to 3.3% of the Maldives’ total assets by 2050, potentially causing US$0.7–1.1 billion in GDP losses during typical 10-year floods.
Maldives’ Adaptation and Global Advocacy
The Maldivian government and its communities are undertaking various strategies to adapt to the effects of sea level rise. A common approach involves building sea walls and breakwaters to protect coastlines from erosion and flooding, with over three-quarters of the inhabited islands implementing some form of hard coastal protection. Land reclamation projects are also underway, creating new land with higher elevations to accommodate population growth and reduce flood risk. Hulhumalé, an artificial island near the capital Malé, has been raised to approximately 1.8 to 2.0 meters above mean sea level, serving as a potential refuge for residents from lower-lying islands.
Beyond traditional infrastructure, the Maldives is exploring innovative solutions such as floating architecture. The Floating City Project aims to build a city for 20,000 people on a platform anchored to the seafloor in a lagoon, designed to rise with increasing sea levels. This project also plans to incorporate artificial coral banks beneath the floating structures to stimulate marine life and enhance wave protection.
The Maldives has also taken an active role in international climate change negotiations and advocacy. It has consistently participated in discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings. The nation actively advocates for ambitious emission reduction targets, pushing for a global temperature rise limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a goal important for low-lying island nations. During COP21 in Paris in 2015, the Maldives, alongside the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), helped ensure the inclusion of the 1.5°C target in the Paris Agreement. The country also actively supports youth involvement in climate negotiations and has committed to phasing out single-use plastics by 2023 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2030, with adequate international support.