Can 23andMe Be Wrong? Accuracy of Ancestry & Health

Direct-to-consumer genetic testing services like 23andMe have become widely popular, offering individuals insights into their ancestry and potential health predispositions. Many users wonder about the accuracy and dependability of these results. Understanding the methodologies behind these reports helps to clarify why outcomes might sometimes differ from expectations or other sources.

How 23andMe Processes Your DNA

DNA processing begins with saliva collection, from which DNA is extracted by a third-party laboratory. This extracted DNA is then amplified to create numerous copies for analysis. The amplified DNA is then fragmented into smaller pieces. These pieces are applied to a DNA chip, also known as a microarray, which is a small glass slide featuring millions of microscopic beads.

Each bead on the microarray holds a specific DNA “probe” designed to match particular genetic variants. Your fragmented DNA adheres to these matching probes through hybridization. A fluorescent label attached to each probe then identifies which version of a genetic variant, known as a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), is present in your DNA. This genotyping technique focuses on analyzing hundreds of thousands to a million specific SNP locations across the genome, rather than sequencing the entire genome.

Understanding Ancestry Result Variability

Ancestry results provided by services like 23andMe are based on statistical probabilities and comparisons to reference populations. The Ancestry Composition algorithm utilizes 47 distinct granular reference populations, defined by genetically similar groups of people with known ancestry. Your DNA is divided into short segments, and each segment is compared against these reference populations to determine the most closely matching ancestral group. The percentages reported reflect the proportion of your DNA that aligns with these worldwide populations.

Variations in ancestry results can arise from several factors, including the size, diversity, and geographical representation of these reference databases. If a specific ancestral group is underrepresented in the reference panel, your connection to that group might be less accurately reflected. Genetic recombination, the shuffling of DNA segments across generations, also influences these reports, as segments inherited from distant ancestors might not be large or distinct enough for definitive assignment. Consequently, some DNA might be assigned to broader geographical regions or remain “unassigned” if it matches many populations or none very well. Therefore, differences in ancestry reports often signify variations in the underlying reference data and algorithms, rather than errors in the genetic data itself.

Interpreting Health Predisposition Reports

23andMe’s health reports offer insights into genetic predispositions or risks for certain conditions, but they are not diagnostic. These reports can be categorized into Genetic Health Risk reports and Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) reports. Genetic Health Risk reports often focus on single-gene conditions, such as specific variants in the BRCA1/BRCA2 genes associated with breast and ovarian cancer risk, or MUTYH variants linked to colorectal cancer predisposition. These tests typically examine only a limited number of specific, common variants and do not cover all possible mutations within these genes.

Polygenic Risk Score reports consider the cumulative effect of thousands of genetic markers, each having a small individual impact, to estimate risk for complex conditions like type 2 diabetes. These conditions are influenced by multiple genes and environmental factors, meaning that a genetic predisposition does not guarantee disease development; this concept is known as penetrance. The statistical models for PRS reports are powered by research data and may not fully account for lifestyle or family history. These reports are intended for informational purposes, and any concerns should be discussed with a healthcare professional, as they are not a substitute for clinical diagnosis or comprehensive medical advice.

What to Do If Your Results Seem Unexpected

If your ancestry or health reports differ from what you anticipated, a helpful first step is to review the detailed scientific reports and methodology provided by 23andMe. This information can clarify how the results were generated and the specific limitations of the analysis.

For health-related findings, discussing your reports with a healthcare provider or a genetic counselor is recommended. These professionals can offer personalized interpretation, integrate your genetic data with your medical history, and guide you on next steps, such as further clinical testing or lifestyle adjustments. For ancestry results, consulting historical records or other family resources can provide additional context and help reconcile any discrepancies.

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